Brianland

The Battleground Swing States 2024

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One thing to remember about 2020 vs 2024 numbers — 4 yrs of old trump voters have died off and 4 yrs of young pro-Roe liberal-leaning voters have come onto the rolls.

Here are the seven states that will decide who the next president will be:

Pennsylvania — 19 electoral college votes (270 needed to win)
2016:  trump by 0.7%  (44,000 vote difference)
2020:  Biden by 1.1%  (81,000)
Popular Dem Governor Josh Shapiro laid down barnburner of an endorsement at the Harris–Walz launch in Philly (Aug 6th).
Senate:  incumbent Dem Bob Casey vs David McCormick.
PA & GA are the only swing states trump has reserved ad time in.
Democratic Governor — so trump cultists won’t be able to thwart certification.

Michigan — 15
2016:  trump by 0.2%  (10,700)
2020:  Biden by 2.8%  (155,000)
Easy to vote by mail;  plus 9 days of early voting;  and same-day voter registration.
RFK Jr. on ballot.
Senate open seat:  Dem Debbie Stabenow stepping down. Dem Elissa Slotkin vs Rep Mike Rogers.
Repub state party chair ousted and they’re fractured and in disarray.
Democratic governor.

Wisconsin — 10
2016:  trump by 0.7%  (22,000)   Hillary infamously never went there once during her entire campaign.
2020:  Biden by  0.6%   (20,000)
The second closest of the swing states (after Georgia).
Senate:  Dem incumbent Tammy Baldwin vs Eric Hovde.
Democratic governor.

If Harris holds “the blue wall” ^  —  these three states get her to 270.

North Carolina — 16 — the closest of the 7 swing states that trump won
2016:  trump by 3.6%  (173,000)
2020:  trump by 1.3%  (74,000) — the narrowest win for trump
The closest state that Dems lost in the last Presidential.
They have a Democratic Governor so bullshit manipulations by Maggots won’t float.
Plus there’s a bat-shit crazy GOP Governor candidate on the ballot (Mark Robinson) – which will cause some Republican voters to stay home.
NYT poll released Aug 17th has Harris up by 2%.  (!)
New voter registrations are up by hundreds of thousands since Kamala got in the race and the debate happened.
Maybe THE key vote to watch on election night.  Polls close at 7:30 Eastern, and they can begin processing the mail-in votes in advance, so this will give us the earliest indication of results election night.  If Kamala wins North Carolina, she’s going to be the next President.

Georgia — 16
2016:  trump by 5%  (211,000)
2020:  Biden by 0.23%  (11,779 — trump on tape saying “We just need 11,780 votes.”)
Massive voter repression laws passed since 2020.
Dems really well organized;  Stacey Abrams secret weapon.
32% Black population — largest of the swing states.
Trump has been insulting popular Repub Governor Brian Kemp at rallies prompting multiple local Republican strategists to say, “He just lost Georgia.”
GA & PA are the only swing states trump has reserved television ad time.

Arizona — 11
2016:  trump by 3.5%  (91,000)
2020:  Biden by 0.3%  (10,000)
Abortion on the ballot — will drive women & pro-women voters to the polls.
Senate race:  Ruben Gallego vs crazy Kari Lake — who will, like in NC, drive blue votes to the polls.
Former GOP party chair facing felony charges for election interference in 2020.

Nevada — 6
2016:  Hillary by 2.4%  (27,000)
2020:  Biden by 2.4%  (33,000)
Abortion on the ballot.
Universal mail-in voting.
New polling stations & drop boxes on Native reservations.
Senate:  incumbent Dem Jacky Rosen vs Rep Sam Brown.
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And I’m still keeping an eye on:

Texas — 40
Margins have gone from 16 to 9 to 5 in the last three Presidentials.
RFK Jr. is on the ballot.
Senate:  incumbent Republican Ted Cruz vs Colin Allred.

Florida — 30
2016:  trump by 1.2%  (113,000)
2020:  trump by 3.3%  (371,000)
Abortion referendum on the ballot — could make a big difference as it has every time it’s been on a ballot ever since Roe was overturned.
Also marijuana legalization on the ballot — but with drive single-issue left-leaning voters to the polls.
Florida has the largest Haitian population in the country — and trump’s racist demonization stemming from non-reality has not played well in the community.
Republican party chair ousted after allegations of rape and video voyeurism.  (!)
Senate:  Dem candidate Debbie Mucarsel-Powell is amazing and can put Rick Scott in the trashcan of history.

Ohio — 17
2016:  trump by 8%  (447,000)
2020:  trump by 8%  (475,000)
Senate:  Dem incumbent Sherrod Brown vs Repub Bernie Moreno.

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National General Election Results

2016
Electoral college:  trump:  306  —  Hillary:  232
Total votes:  Hillary:  65.8 million  —  trump:  63 million
Percentage:  Hillary: 48%  —  trump:  45.9%

2020
Electoral college:  Biden:  306  —  trump:  232
Total votes:  Biden:  81.3 million  —  trump:  74.2 million
Percentage:  Biden:  51.3%  —  trump:  46.8%        (4.5% difference)
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Here’s my 2024 electoral college calls (as of August 17th) . . .

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Here’s where you can get my book “Blissfully Ravaged in Democracy: Adventures in Politics 1980–2020“

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Here’s the inspirational Introduction to Blissfully Ravaged.  

Here’s some Things You Can Do Beyond Voting.  

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by Brian Hassett

karmacoupon@gmail.com   —  BrianHassett.com

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https://www.facebook.com/Brian.Hassett.Canada