Brianland

I was looking for this number and found the most optimistic guess at it (via the Hillary campaign) in the NYT yesterday:

“If the results of Florida & Michigan are allowed to stand, and Mr. Obama is awarded the delegates won by ‘uncommitted’ on the Michigan ballot, Mrs. Clinton would pick up 64 delegates toward the 2,209 [the new magic number for majority in you include FL & MI]  that would be needed to secure the nomination if the full Florida and Michigan delegations were seated, according to calculations by her campaign.”

With Obama’s current lead (currently about 140 delegates), and likely upcoming pick-ups in WY, MS, NC, IN, OR, MT, and SD, he’s certainly going to be more than 64 delegates ahead at the end.  So — even if the DNC counted FL & MI as is, she still wouldn’t gain the lead.  Therefore, the DNC can be accommodating and seat the delegates after she’s (literally or essentially) mathematically eliminated.

After all 3 of Hillary’s victories on Mini-Tuesday, she only gained 5 – 15 delegates.  Even if the DNC gave her FL & MI, she’d have to gain 70 more out of PA, WV, KT and PR — 5 times as many net-gain dels in 4 states as she got total in her 3 Mini-Tuesday wins.  And that’s not including everything Obama’s going to pick up from here on out.

so . . . since she’s not going to be ahead in delegates, the only two questions:

1.  Does she beat him on the total popular vote count?  (for the super-delegate overturn), or

2.  Does she try to make a forced compromise to get herself on as V.P. (against his first-choice wishes)?

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For one of the most historic events in American history — check out my Obama Inauguration Adventures.

For how Woodstock promoter Michael Lang used my reports in his book — check out how Obama’s Inauguration was like Woodstock.

For an account of the most jubilant night in the history of New York — check the Election Night 2008 Adventure. 

For a night in New York that started out just as joyous — check out the Election Night 2004 Adventure.

For the kind of creations that got us across the historic finish line — check out my poem and video for Where Wayward Jekylls Hyde.

For an on-the-campaign-trail adventure — check out the physical altercation I was in the middle of with Al Franken at a Howard Dean rally in ’04.

For my tribute to a great political reporter — check out my Tim Russert tribute.

For a full listing of great reporters and news sources — check out my Political Sources Primer.

For how well these sources work — check out my 2012 election predictions.

… or here’s the 2008 projections — in both, I’m over 98% correct.  😉

=============================================

Brian Hassett  — karmacoupon@gmail.com

Brian Hassett .com

You’re not going to believe this — it’s right out of a great espionage novel — but just after Super Tuesday, the great veteran politico Al Hunt, now Executive Editor at Bloomberg News, was emailing with the Obama campaign, who mistakenly included in a dispatch to Hunt the campaign’s projections for all the remaining states.  But what’s really amazing is how accurate it turned out to be.

The mighty Tim Russert was on the best political show on TV, “Morning Joe”, this morning and read out the memo’s results.  On February 6th, the Obama campaign knew they were going to win 12 in a row!  Well, except that they thought they’d lose Maine 51-49, when they actually won it.  But they called every other state exactly.

If this was a movie review, I’d have to write:  SPOILERS AHEAD at this point.  So, stop reading if you don’t want to know what’s going to happen.

Back on Feb. 6th, the Obama campaign figured they would lose Ohio 53-46 (and they did, 54-44), lose Texas 51-47 (it was 51-48), lose Rhode Island 57-42 (it was 58-40), and that they’d win Vermont 55-45 (where they again out-performed expectations in New England, winning 59-39).

So . . . how’s it going to play out?  In the next week:

Obama wins the Wyoming caucus 60-40 (13 delegates), and

wins the open primary in Mississippi 62-38 (34 delegates).

The campaign thinks he will lose Pennsylvania 52-47 (the remaining big cheese-steak, with 161 proportional delegates), but then will win Guam (9 dels), Indiana (72), and the last big state North Carolina (115).

They will then lose West Virginia (28) and Kentucky (51),

But will win Oregon (52), Montana (16), and South Dakota (15), before losing the final caucus in Puerto Rico (55).

There was no projection of a do-over in Florida and Michigan, which are now looking increasingly likely.

The proportional delegates divvied up in states she should win: 295

In states he should win:  326.

After the Ohio-Texas Mini-Tuesday, NBC News estimates Hillary will gain only 8-10 delegates — leaving Obama with a net lead of around 140 voter-elected “pledged” delegates:  1,355 to 1,213.  ie; after her “big” wins last night, she hardly made a dent in his delegate lead.

Since the campaign’s projections of the prior states have been spot-on, if the rest of it plays out as predicted, he will not lose his current lead, and will probably add to it — especially since all the delegates are allocated proportionally, and he keeps his losses much closer than she does.  She lost the 11 states before this Mini-Tuesday by an average of 33%.  Last night she only won Texas by 3%, and Ohio by 10%.

This looks good for an Obama nomination.

And in terms of him winning over super-delegates, besides his pretty commanding pledged delegate lead, Obama is also still ahead in the total popular vote by over 600,000, and has won 23 primaries & caucuses to her 14  —  with 2 more likely victories coming in the next week leading into the six-week primary “intermission” before Pennsylvania.

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For one of the most historic events in American history — check out my Obama Inauguration Adventures.

For how Woodstock promoter Michael Lang used my reports in his book — check out how Obama’s Inauguration was like Woodstock.

For an account of the most jubilant night in the history of New York — check the Election Night 2008 Adventure. 

For a night in New York that started out just as joyous — check out the Election Night 2004 Adventure.

For the kind of creations that got us across the historic finish line — check out my poem and video for Where Wayward Jekylls Hyde.

For an on-the-campaign-trail adventure — check out the physical altercation I was in the middle of with Al Franken at a Howard Dean rally in ’04.

For my tribute to a great political reporter — check out my Tim Russert tribute.

For a full listing of great reporters and news sources — check out my Political Sources Primer.

For how well these sources work — check out my 2012 election predictions.

… or here’s the 2008 projections — in both, I’m over 98% correct.  😉

=============================================

Brian Hassett  — karmacoupon@gmail.com

BrianHassett.com

“Goin’ all-in” — tonight the voters get called and lay the cards on the table.

Poll closings:  (all times Eastern)

7 PM  Vermont  (should be another double-digit win for Obama, making it 12 in a row)

7:30 PM  Ohio — thus begins the double-header nail-biters of the primary.

8 PM – primaries end in most of Texas (but no media reporting until 9PM)
8:15PM – caucuses start in most of Texas  (1/3 of the Texas delegates)
9 PM – primaries end in the El Paso western region of Texas  (first results begin to come in)

9 PM – Rhode Island

Heavy turnout already reported everywhere.  The Texas state government said over 2 million votes have been cast in advance.  The all-time record turn-out for Dems in a Texas primary was 1.8 million, in 1988.

If Hillary loses both Ohio and Texas, the “Hillary withdrawal watch” begins.  Either she gets out on her own, or the party elders force her out — and by that I mean Gore, Dean, Pelosi, Reid, Edwards, Richardson, Biden, Carter, and others.

If she wins both, it’s, “Pennsylvania, here we come!”  She’s bringing in a million dollars a day and can afford to stay in it, and there’s now some tiny cracks in Obama’s shiny armour.

If it’s a split, she’ll stay in, but her next problem is the Wyoming caucus on Saturday and Mississippi next Tuesday, where she’ll get two more losses.  With no more contests for six long weeks that “the elders” are not going to be happy to be slogging and slugging through, and the pressure through the media, the endorsements, and the super-delegates will be for her to get out — unless she somehow conjures up a witch’s brew of doubt and innuendo about the young messiah.

Enjoy!
and March Forth, America!

The whole primary calendar (with results) is here:  https://brianhassett.com//2008/02/09/the-2008-primaries-by-state-n-date/

And as usual I’ll be on your internet radio at ten after noon tomorrow — http://www.thatradio.com/

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For one of the most historic events in American history — check out my Obama Inauguration Adventures.

For how Woodstock promoter Michael Lang used my reports in his book — check out how Obama’s Inauguration was like Woodstock.

For an account of the most jubilant night in the history of New York — check the Election Night 2008 Adventure. 

For a night in New York that started out just as joyous — check out the Election Night 2004 Adventure.

For the kind of creations that got us across the historic finish line — check out my poem and video for Where Wayward Jekylls Hyde.

For an on-the-campaign-trail adventure — check out the physical altercation I was in the middle of with Al Franken at a Howard Dean rally in ’04.

For my tribute to a great political reporter — check out my Tim Russert tribute.

For a full listing of great reporters and news sources — check out my Political Sources Primer.

For how well these sources work — check out my 2012 election predictions.

… or here’s the 2008 projections — in both, I’m over 98% correct.  😉

=============================================

Brian Hassett  — karmacoupon@gmail.com

BrianHassett.com

Tick tick, click click, time’s a wastin’, page refreshing, Dynasty ending in Dallas.

Get Smart, Eight Years Is Enough;

Voters Touched By An Angel To Crown New American Idol Next Week.

This is kinda hard to fathom, but do you realize that Hillary Clinton has never been ahead in the voter-elected pledged delegate count (what determines the nomination) for a single minute of this entire primary?!  She lost Iowa right outta the gate;  she won New Hampshire by only 2% so the delegates were split 9-9;  and although she won Nevada by 6% she actually lost the delegate count by 1;  then the South Carolina blow-out;  on Super Tuesday she came out with less delegates when all was tabulated; and then of course she’s lost every election since.

In the More Bad News For Breakfast Dept.:  When do you suppose was the last time in one of Team Clinton’s morning briefings they could look at polls where Hillary had gone up anywhere since the prior survey?   My guess is November.

And I assume you’ve heard that Obama just past the 1 million donor mark!  According to Politico, in the 2004 election, 2.5 million people donated to ALL THE CAMPAIGNS COMBINED – that’s Bush, Kerry, Howard Dean and every other candidate in the primary.  This guy has single-handedly gotten nearly half the contributors as every candidate combined last time — and it’s only February!

In the Veepstakes:  I dunno if you know how crazy I am for Senator Jim Webb from Virginia, but I’ve been calling him for V.P. for the last year, and this morning the brilliant speechwriter and political strategist Bob Shrum, when pressed to give one name for Obama’s running mate, sho nuff, he clicked on the Webb.  I would about die if that happened.

And speaking of dying, I’m so glad I didn’t those 50 times I almost did — so I could be around for this living history.  The good that is America is rising again, and God willing, we’ll all be around to see it.

Edit:  When the actor and activist Brad Whitford was asked about the V.P. on Friday’s Larry King free-for-all, without any prior mentioning of the name, he said, “I would be excited about Senator Webb — he’d be fantastic.”  (!) And it was immediately and spontaneously “YESSed!!” by Stephanie Miller;  And shortly afterwards the conservative Ben Stein said, “I think Senator Webb is a great, super idea.  I wish we had someone like him on the Republican side.”  !  🙂

Jim Webb can out-McCain  McCain!

Yeah, that’s the ticket!

March Forth!

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For one of the most historic events in American history — check out my Obama Inauguration Adventures.

For how Woodstock promoter Michael Lang used my reports in his book — check out how Obama’s Inauguration was like Woodstock.

For an account of the most jubilant night in the history of New York — check the Election Night 2008 Adventure. 

For a night in New York that started out just as joyous — check out the Election Night 2004 Adventure.

For the kind of creations that got us across the historic finish line — check out my poem and video for Where Wayward Jekylls Hyde.

For an on-the-campaign-trail adventure — check out the physical altercation I was in the middle of with Al Franken at a Howard Dean rally in ’04.

For my tribute to a great political reporter — check out my Tim Russert tribute.

For a full listing of great reporters and news sources — check out my Political Sources Primer.

For how well these sources work — check out my 2012 election predictions.

… or here’s the 2008 projections — in both, I’m over 98% correct.  😉

=============================================

Brian Hassett  — karmacoupon@gmail.com

BrianHassett.com

“Meet me in Ohio!  Let’s have a debate!” demanded a seething, red-eyed Hillary Clinton last week. It’s a good-old Western showdown!

Tonight, MSNBC, 9PM — 10:30PM Eastern, from the home of Rock n Roll, Cleveland, Ohio.

It’s 90 minutes, and will repeat numerous times during the overnight.  Moderated by Tim Russert and Brian Williams — two of the best in the business.  Plus, it’s another “no rules” debate!  So there’s none of those annoying time-limits or blinking lights on answers or rebutals.

Plus!!  It’s the much-preferred sit-down style — with the notes pads, and side-by-sideness — watch how gentleman Barack holds the chair for her 😉 — and how she stares him down during answers, and that Martin Short-like fake smile she has when he’s circling the bases after another home run.  The sit-downs have always been the most civil debates of this campaign — but after Hillary’s surreal manic bi-polar schizophrenia of the past “shame-on-you, Barack” week, who knows who will show up tonight.

But  . . .  this is it for this exciting Primary!  During the last week, Hillary’s said numerous times, “Texas will pick the next Democratic nominee.”  Bill said, “If Hillary wins in Texas and Ohio she’ll be the nominee.  If you don’t deliver for her, she can’t be.”

Politicians don’t say things on camera in a campaign that they know will be used against them; especially when the deadline to use those quotes would be in two weeks.  Hillary wouldn’t say things in debates last summer for the fear that they’d be used in the general election next fall.  If she was saying last week that, “Texas will pick the next nominee,” that’s about as clear as you can get.  She’s either prophetic, or has written her own exit cue.

So I’m just suggesting to catch this final debate tonight, should be a doozy!  And enjoy the next and possbily final week of the campaign – it’s gonna be a bumpy ride, Bette!  The Clinton’s have officially employed “the kitchen sink strategy” – to throw everything they can at Obama to see if anything sticks.  It’s something new everyday!  Yesterday they circulated a photo of Obama in local African grab when he visited Kenya.  Nuthin like playin’ the Muslim & race card!
But overall this has been the most wonderful, historic, dynamic, and for the most part cleanly-played primary campaign that I’ve seen in my 30 years of living this stuff.  It’s sad to think it may be over – even though it’s been going on for about a year!

A week today — March Forth — will be the Texas / Ohio (and Vermont and Rhode Island) primaries.  Hillary may conced that night — or we may have 3 months of trouble!  And fun!  😉 but, shhhh!

Tonight — will Hillary revert back to the classy statesman?  Or be the pyscho desperate attack dog with the canned lines and conjured anger of the last few days?

Enjoy the climax

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For one of the most historic events in American history — check out my Obama Inauguration Adventures.

For how Woodstock promoter Michael Lang used my reports in his book — check out how Obama’s Inauguration was like Woodstock.

For an account of the most jubilant night in the history of New York — check the Election Night 2008 Adventure. 

For a night in New York that started out just as joyous — check out the Election Night 2004 Adventure.

For the kind of creations that got us across the historic finish line — check out my poem and video for Where Wayward Jekylls Hyde.

For an on-the-campaign-trail adventure — check out the physical altercation I was in the middle of with Al Franken at a Howard Dean rally in ’04.

For my tribute to a great political reporter — check out my Tim Russert tribute.

For a full listing of great reporters and news sources — check out my Political Sources Primer.

For how well these sources work — check out my 2012 election predictions.

… or here’s the 2008 projections — in both, I’m over 98% correct.  😉

=============================================

Brian Hassett  — karmacoupon@gmail.com

BrianHassett.com

THE ROCK PARTY  and  THE FALL OF NEW YORK

                                                                         *

It was a really magic night!  Until the nightmare.

Couldn’t sleep the night before  —  up at 6 AM watching the camera follow Don Imus into his polling station with a long line of people out the door waiting to vote, and him saying, “I’ve Never seen it like this!”

There’s reports of record-breaking turnout in every county in the land.  I dash over to the school at some low point in the news hour cycle and vote by pulling the giant rickety lever on NYS’s Depression-era voting machines for the Green Party.  I’m a strategic voter and knew Kerry was karrying the state by double-digits, so I try to get the Green’s numbers up.

By noon, JFK’s headquarters is giddy and almost dancing, and Bush’s is heads-down and dour.  All the pundits are pundificating about what went wrong for Bush.  The wee Shrub himself stumbles out of his voting booth looking as shell‑shocked as his mother watching King George the First collapse in that great debate in ’92.  And the Little One’s babbling even more incoherently than usual  —  he Knows it isn’t going his way.

This was obviously Our day!  And the world was changing for the better!

The phone’s ringin’ off the hook, people stopping by.  The “liberal” TV media are curling tiny smiles and radiating subtle shades of giddiness.  Networks were monitoring exit polls, and they weren’t reporting them over the air, but the results were in their faces.

And there were parties everywhere.  NBC was outside Rockefeller Center.  CNN at Times Square.  Senator Chuck Schumer at the Grand Hyatt.  A thousand email invites to places like The Bowery Poetry Club and Crobar hosting serious election-party all-nighters.

Got to Rock Center by 6 and it felt like warm-ups on New Year’s Eve  —  everybody out with a smile, some rushing towards home with a big beam on, others waiting for the other ball to drop.  As you entered the processional mall of the Rockefeller Cloister there was an almost beatific calm of joyous confidence.  NBC, God bless ’em, had built this “Democracy Plaza,” a giant Disneyland playground for fans of democracy  —  towers with giant TV screens and concert speakers blaring NBC and MSNBC, three different broadcast studios behind walls of glass  —  reflecting the faux transparency of the election they’re covering  —  citizens and freedom-of-the-press merging in an open orgy  —  with Oval Office Fantasyland displays you could walk through, and a giant map of the nation on the skating rink below to be colored in as the states are won.

As I arrive, I see Tom Brokaw through the window sitting down in his chair for his final election night coverage, the only guy on the air in Nebraska or wherever he was when Kennedy was shot, and now signing-off his career with JFK II.  I see my favorite player in the pundits league, Tim Russert, coming right towards me thru the crowd!  He’s got his frowning don’t-mess-with-me scowl on, like he’s trying to scare off any space intruders, but I just go, “No way!” and give him this big smile, as in, “Stop it, Mr. Serious, this is gonna be a great night!” and tell him so, and he drops his scowl and smiles for just a second, winks, and says “Thanks!”

The whole place is wild!  Like being at any euphoric mass gathering of like-minded people  —  a Woodstock for voters, Mass with the Pope, the real American Super Bowl  —

2 teams, no tomorrow, a lotta hype, dancing bears, and Las Vegas layin’ odds!  Except the winner of this gamble gets to turn its citizens into armed killers and our nation into a goose-stepping army of chest-pounding thugs.  Or not  —  as the case will obviously be!

We were finally putting an end to this King George madness and everybody knew it!  You could see it in the faces.  Watching MSNBC prepare to go on the air, Ron Reagan Jr. was just bouncing and couldn’t stop smiling.  Across the table, Republican Joe Scarborough was ashen in shock and lost in thought.  All around there’s nothing but Kerry signs and buttons and women and Democrats and young people in a blazing rainbow of new-day joy.

Every time Kerry or a Democrat’s name is mentioned, the crowd cheers.  When Bush’s name is mentioned, one guy claps.

“Who’s THAT guy?” and everyone laughs.

CNN’s been hyping their Times Square broadcast for about a month, so I scooch over there before the results start coming in at 7.  If the Peacock has this goin’ on at a skating rink, the all-news network in the middle of Times Square is gonna be the center of the universe!

As I salivate thru the tourists for the feast ahead, there’s the first subtle hint of, “This isn’t right. What’s going on?”  CNN’s Campaign Express bus is parked in the middle of Times Square . . . but nobody’s around it.  And there’s the giant Nasdaq screen, but it’s Not showing CNN.  There’s a street-level broadcast booth, but there’s only about 20 people around it.  There’s Larry King and Jeff Greenfield, but there’s no audio on the outside of the studio.  There’s kids smooshing their faces against the glass, and tourists from Kansas who just want to wave home on TV.  What happened to the election?  This is just a glass bowl of Larryfish.  And they’re barely moving!  Across the square, MTV’s plastered for 3 stories with their Choose or Lose campaign.  NBC turned Rock Center into a Democracy Disneyland.  Flags are flying all over the city – and here’s CNN with the sizzle of a stock ticker.  Watching Larry in an isolation booth adjust his pants was about as awesome as crossing the Square and watching the Times’  print dry.  So I zip back over to the November New Years Eve party.

Weaving through the Midtown canyons, some guy was up ahead washing windows with a squeegee, with some security guard standing over him, and I’m thinking, “Ope! There’s some guy with ‘community service’!”  But as I get closer, I look through the windows he’s cleaning  —  and it’s the freakin’ Fox News broadcast booth!  And not a single person is standing outside!  Britt Doom, William Kristolmeth, and that still-in-the-closet Beetle Barnes are all sittin’ right there — and there’s not one fan at the window!  It was almost sad  —  but  . . .  not.  And so reconfirming of how the night was going!  These guys were solo at a funeral and no one was hanging with them.  Meanwhile, the Democrats were dancing in the street to Johnny B. Goode outside Radio City Music Hall!

Back at the Rock party, the first results come in  —  they only give piddly Vermont to Kerry, but a big cheer goes up anyway.  There’s a funny little murmur of boos whenever they call a red state for Bush, and everybody laughs that we’re doing it.  It’s like the silly unflappable mood when you’re at the big home game and know your team’s gonna win tonight.  People are beaming, back-slapping, and beer drinking out of deli coffee cups  —  the new-age Guiliani-Buster.  “Strangers stopping strangers just to shake their hand,” I heard some Deadhead singin’ on the back of a Cadillac.  We were all together and happy.  This horrific global nightmare was finally over!  And we were all sharing the moment as one!

With each passing half-hour, more and more people were pouring into the town square as word was Kerrying across the land.  Everyone wanted to be here.  They were calling Connecticut, Delaware, Maine, Mass and all sorts of others for Kerry, even recent toss-up New Jersey.  And Republican stalwarts like Virginia and North & South Carolina were too-close-to-call!  And I thought, “My God, not only is John Kerry gonna be President, John Edwards is going to be Vice-President!  How cool is that!”  I’d met him during the primaries and he seemed like a bright straight-ahead real person even though he’s a politician and looks like he’s about 12.

On the wall of the giant phallic Rockefeller Tower they’d rigged up (literally) two window washing rigs, draped one in red and the other in blue, and were pulleying them up the side of the building as each state’s electoral votes were determined, with this carny bell-ringing level marked at about the 27th floor reading game-over 270, and these long primary drapes streamed down to the ground forming a giant bar graph of votes like a flowing Ross Perot chart, New York skyscraper size.

The whole scene and vibe kept accelerating, faster and faster, the frenzy escalating with each state’s poll closings.  I bump into Howard Dean as he’s leaving the MSNBC booth.  He’s covered in the pancake make-up that looks so good on TV and so six-feet-under in person.  He was gonna walk by, but I say, “Hey man, I was with you in New Hampshire!” and he stops and turns and says, “Hey! Thanks!  That’s great, thank you very much,” and shakes my hand and looks me in the eye.  But he seems all worried like he’s going to lose again or something.  I wanna pump-up the TV QB, so I slap his shoulder making a poof of pancake dust cloud his head.  “This is gonna be a great night!” I say, and he’s like, “Well, . . . I sure hope so (hak hak).”

I’m thinkin, “This guy’s a worrywart!”  But I say, “This is what we were doin’ it all for!”  And he says, “Yeah, I know,” shakin his head in an agreeing yet discouraging way that said, “Boy, you’re right.  But, boy you’re wrong.” Like he knew somethin I didn’t yet.  Then he says, “Let’s keep our fingers crossed,” as a handler grabs him by the arm and whisks him off to his next camera.

I start saying to people, “Say goodbye to Senator Kerry,” and a long pause as they look at me strangely.  “And Hello to President-Elect John Kerry!” and they burst into smile and we all high-five and spill beer!  It was So great!  There was no place  in the world I’d rather  be.  The cell phone’s ringing with calls from all over North America  —  some people biting their nails, others in vans biting the dust from swing-states and calling for the latest update.  Then Walter calls, inviting me down to the Daily Show party at that sprawling Park Cafe party club.  Well, okay, that’s one other place I’d like to be.

Jump in a cab headin’ downtown.  Through Times Square, past CNN, a hundred people now swarming around the curving Larryfish bowl, but it’s nothing like Rock Center.  The cab radio is calling Chuck Schumer the winner in the New York Senate race the minute after the polls close (9PM), and the Dem Senator in Colorado is beating Adolph Coors!  This is a landslide!  All is good in the universe!  . . .       . . .

. . .     . . .       Until I step into the other world of the Daily Show party.

Suddenly, as Dylan says, things have changed.

Giant wide-screen TVs hanging everywhere from the ceiling like bats;

— except loud music blaring instead of the news,

and no one was paying any attention

to   The   Election!

hello?

Grabbed a plateful of refueling salmon and stood under the lowest-hanging bat, squinting at the numbers, but it wasn’t coming into focus, and it wasn’t computing.

I’d just been dancing in throngs of victorious new world Democrats cheering every state,

but suddenly it was the state of dismay,

America’s best political TV show’s party . . .

didn’t even have the sound up!

Like this was some old debate from the C-SPAN library playing in the background and not the final numbers flowing in live after years of work and only our freakin’ species in the balance!

Bush up by 20,000 in Florida  —  “It must be just the Republican districts they’re counting so far.”

Then I look again, and he’s up by 100,000!

Something’s wrong,

Something’s wrong,

I think back to my many years of studying elections, and immediately start drinking tequila.

Then Virginia, and North & South Carolina all fall like saplings in a sudden storm and they’re gone.

We’re not even close in Arkansas,

Not even close in Louisiana,

Just a hairsbreadth ahead in Wisconsin and PA.

This isn’t right.

Something’s wrong.

I quickly proceed to double tequilas.

I’d been telling people for days, “We’ll know the trend and what’s going to happen by 9:30.”

I look at my watch.

It’s 9:30.

I’m standing under the batscreens,

screaming

inside

that something’s not right  . . .  in  A  BIG  Way.

Can’t admit the numbers are real,

something’s gotta be wrong,

go to another screen, another network, another number, but it’s not adding up.

Can’t move,

or see anything but exploding numbers blinding from above,

immobilized

like a bleeding soldier in the field,

I need morphine  . . .

I need to be shot in the head.

I slump down in one of the giant curving Copacabana booths.

And once I’m off the glued TV screen hell I notice all these famous faces in the crowd around me, all these young actors and actresses I recognize from movies or my dreams or other parties.

Pale and goateed Ethan Hawke drops down beside me,

both of us stunned and staring up in open-mouthed shock at the numbers . . .

two wounded soldiers on the field of Gettysburg,

looking above for salvation, but dying inside as none comes,

limbs numb,

stomach-punched,

stripped of hope;

a blood-red tide rising,

drowning,

gasping,

nothing we can do  . . .

I’ve gotta drink this through:

Who’s got a light?

I know!  It’s . . . the Daily Show‘s fault!

Yeah, that’s it!

I picture the million dancing Democrats at Rock Center and jump back in a cab uptown with visions of ferris wheels and carousals, calliopes and clowns, and everybody was dancin’, dancin’ in the street!

but as the cab rounds the corner onto 50th

a newspaper blows across the empty street in front of us.

We coulda driven on the sidewalk.

When I left here a few seconds ago (it seems) it was New Year’s Eve  —  and now it’s suddenly the hungover morning after  —  and it’s not even midnight.

I stagger like a wounded cowpoke through the ghost-town tumbleweeds.  Disembodied voices echo through empty canyons like taunting demons.  The balloons had all dropped and popped, and multi-colored litter is all that’s left of the dream.  A dancing mosh-pit of war-ending democracy was now a ghoulish accident scene in the middle of the night — flashing lights, the absence of life and the sense of death, clusters of silent cops by yellow police tape and beaten blue barricades  —  and a bloody red splatter all over the white skating rink below.

The happy circus had turned into some upside-down Bizarro-world, a Twilight Zone where all the people have disappeared, and echoing through a canyon, when some state is called for Bush . . . a Cheer goes up from some hidden pocket of insurgents!  A cheer for godsakes!  Here!  In My city!  The Artist’s Village!  . . . of liberals, democracy, our nation’s first capital, Washington’s oath, the birth of it all, the revolutionaries, the beatniks, the spirit guides, the mystics, painters and poets, Greenwich Village and the morning New York Times, immigrants, minorities, and open-mindedness  —  the cradle that berthed be-bop and folk, that drew Lennon and Dylan and me and you  —  Clinton’s victory convention and his First Lady becoming Senator  —  FDR and Eleanor’s home for godsake!  and Moynahan and Jackie O., Walt Whitman and Mr. Poe . . .

Oh no!

Another state’s called for Bush,

and another faint cheer washes in where angels fear to tread,

and the building-size red stripe is pulled higher up the wall, closer and closer to the 270 buzzer,

but the blood-red dye’s already cast in the ice,

and Bush’s smirking face is on the giant screens Everywhere looking down on us like Saddam Hussein’s glower all over Baghdad,

and hidden somewhere in the haunted streets lay a pocket of his Republican Guard

cheering

right

in the middle of Manhattan!

Someone shoot me in the head!

I’m no longer grateful  —  I just wanna be dead!

I wanna jump in front of a cab, but jump inside one instead.

I can put this nightmare to rest  —  if I can just go to bed;

And dream in blue rhymes,  and never see red;

I promise, oh lord,  if you’ll just end this dread,

That I’ll be a good person,  from this day ahead!

And I know there’s a meaning,  or so I’ve read;

That I can still carve my future  and will not be led.

*                           *                           *

the afternoon after:

One time I asked Beat poet Michael McClure about the unified and driving force of his “generation,” and how that was missing today.  And he answered, like a poet, almost in a haiku:

“Go to Texas,” is all he said.

Then a long pause.

“Find opposition.”

When it looked like Bush was going to win a few months ago, I thought, “Well, this is sure gonna be great for music!”

From ‘68 to ’74, when America had its former Worst President, it was one of the highpoints in creative life for most of the American arts.

We’ve had a good start, but we’ve only got a few more years to take advantage of this war-mongering born-again chicken-hawk liar,

to channel our fire

into our art

and our lives

and be better people

and lead by example if our White House doesn’t.

This kind of oppositional inspiration only comes around about once a generation!

And it’s going to be a joy to collectively make the art and life-choices that matter, and stoke the fires in the smithy of our souls.

Groove forth, and thrive in the underground  —  just as our roots always have.

peace,

Brian

For a similar Adventure Tale with a much happier ending — check out — Election Night in New York 2008

================================================

You can read this and 50 other Political Adventure Tales like it in my 2020 book Blissfully Ravaged in Democracy — Adventures in Politics — 1980–2020.

For one of the most historic events in American history — check out my Obama Inauguration Adventures.

For how Woodstock promoter Michael Lang used my reports in his book — check out how Obama’s Inauguration was like Woodstock.

For the kind of creations that got us across the historic finish line — check out my poem and video for Where Wayward Jekylls Hyde.

For an on-the-campaign-trail adventure — check out the physical altercation I was in the middle of with Al Franken at a Howard Dean rally in ’04.

For my tribute to a great political reporter — check out my Tim Russert tribute.

For a full listing of great reporters and news sources — check out my Political Sources Primer.

For how well these sources work — check out my 2012 election predictions.

… or here’s the 2008 projections — in both, I’m over 98% correct.  😉

=====================================

Brian Hassett  —  karmacoupon@gmail.com   —  BrianHassett.com

or you can join in the jam on Facebook at

https://www.facebook.com/Brian.Hassett.Canada/

This was a letter to the editor, published in The Toronto Star, March 4, 2003.

“A Love Affair With Southern Neighbor Goes Bad”

Growing up as a kid on the prairies in the 1960s and 70s I was instilled with a kind of knee-jerk anti-American sentiment that seemed to be fostered by every person I met.  Then at age 15 or 16, I started reading Rolling Stone and went to California and realized that hmmm, maybe Manitoba wasn’t “God’s country,” and that a whole lot of really cool stuff was going on south of the border.  I went to New York City at 19, fell in love with the place, and never left.

America became my country, my home.  Like many idealistic new immigrants, I was very pro-American and would defend her verbally whenever necessary, and even thought I’d join the army if she needed me.  Since I couldn’t vote, I volunteered for some candidate in every election, and did everything I could to participate and make it a better place.  I wrote about it, nearly preached about it, and my apt. became known as “CentCom” for visiting Canadians like your own Mitch Potter.

Then things changed.  And I don’t mean 9/11.  It was more the “stolen” election in 2000 when Supreme Court justices who normally voted in favour of State’s rights did a one-time-only reversal and voted their party’s moron child as the leader of the biggest arsenal in human history.  It’s pretty much been downhill from there.

This cavalier cowboy rejection of the U.N., NATO, and globally accepted codes of conduct is premeditated murder.  This isn’t disagreeing over Roe vs. Wade.  This is starting WWIII.  I now understand the hatred that the Vietnam-era protesters expressed for their government.  I’ve come home to Oakville to take care of my parents, and I don’t want to go back.  And I just want to apologize on behalf of the many Americans — a majority of whom voted for Al Gore or none-of-the-above — and say that many people south of here are as sickened and frightened by this global White House boot-stomping as some of your government have fortunately been overheard as saying.

=  =  =  =  =  =  =  =  =  =  =  =  =  =  =  =  =  =  =  =  =  =  =  =  =

For one of the most historic events in American history — check out my Obama Inauguration Adventures.

For how Woodstock promoter Michael Lang used my reports in his book — check out how Obama’s Inauguration was like Woodstock.

For an account of the most jubilant night in the history of New York — check the Election Night 2008 Adventure. 

For a night in New York that started out just as joyous — check out the Election Night 2004 Adventure.

For the kind of creations that got us across the historic finish line — check out my poem and video for Where Wayward Jekylls Hyde.

For an on-the-campaign-trail adventure — check out the physical altercation I was in the middle of with Al Franken at a Howard Dean rally in ’04.

For my tribute to a great political reporter — check out my Tim Russert tribute.

For a full listing of great reporters and news sources — check out my Political Sources Primer.

For how well these sources work — check out my 2012 election predictions.

… or here’s the 2008 projections — in both, I’m over 98% correct.  😉

=============================================

Brian Hassett  — karmacoupon@gmail.com

BrianHassett.com

This is huge news, actually.  Hillary’s dropped the negative attacks, and she’s dropped the super-delegates as an issue!

After a week of going negative didn’t work in Wisconsin, rather than coming into this debate on the offensive looking for the knock-out punch, she’s obviously changed her approach.  Rather than her “words don’t matter” and “plagiarism” sludge tossing of the past week, this was much closer to the 60 Minutes interview, even complete with her same line, “Whatever happens, I’ll be fine.”  And she ended the debate so serenely, saying, “I am honored to be here with Barack Obama, absolutely honored.”  That’s as close to a white flag as you’re going to get in politics.  And this from the No-Concession- Speech Queen.  In fact her whole last answer seemed like a campaign-ending concession speech, thanking all Americans, and praying we will go forward together.

This reminded me of the Nevada debate, when we knew it was over for John Edwards, and he just gave a magnificent performance, his best of the campaign, and it was so beautiful to see him soar and have all of us (and him) have this last performance to remember his campaign by.  And it seemed that way for Hillary Clinton tonight.  Go out on a high note, on the high road.

And the other wonderful highlight — Hillary put an end to the super-delegate talk, saying, “I think it will sort itself out.  I’m not worried about that.  We will have a unified party.”  She’s conceded the point and isn’t going to try overturn the voters’ decision.

This, and dropping the negative, are huge headlines for the party, the nation, and the world.

I’ve been saying for a couple weeks that the Clintons MUST be able to see the writing on the wall, and it’s not in their best interest to tear their party apart or their own reputations to shreds.

And I’m sure this is all driving Republicans nuts!  Here it is desperation time, and the two combatants are playing nice!  “Rats, foiled again!”

With all the shenanigans of last week, I’m so glad that seems to be over, and this is NOT going to be an ugly end to this most beautiful and historic of primary campaigns.

cross-posted to:  http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/2/22/249/99037/24/461704

=  =  =  =  =  =  =  =  =  =  =  =  =  =  =  =  =  =  =  =  =  =  =  =  =

For one of the most historic events in American history — check out my Obama Inauguration Adventures.

For how Woodstock promoter Michael Lang used my reports in his book — check out how Obama’s Inauguration was like Woodstock.

For an account of the most jubilant night in the history of New York — check the Election Night 2008 Adventure. 

For a night in New York that started out just as joyous — check out the Election Night 2004 Adventure.

For the kind of creations that got us across the historic finish line — check out my poem and video for Where Wayward Jekylls Hyde.

For an on-the-campaign-trail adventure — check out the physical altercation I was in the middle of with Al Franken at a Howard Dean rally in ’04.

For my tribute to a great political reporter — check out my Tim Russert tribute.

For a full listing of great reporters and news sources — check out my Political Sources Primer.

For how well these sources work — check out my 2012 election predictions.

… or here’s the 2008 projections — in both, I’m over 98% correct.  😉

=============================================

Brian Hassett  — karmacoupon@gmail.com

BrianHassett.com

Obama just won Wisconsin by 17 points!  58% to 41% — another 60-40 voters’ decision, in another 5% African-American state.

And he won Hawaii by even more than D.C. — 76% to 24%!

It’s not only 10 victories in a row – it’s 10 blow-outs in a row.  Last night was his smallest victory yet, and it was by 17 points.

Since Super Tuesday:

3 times he’s beaten her by more than 3-to-1, getting over 75% of the vote.

3 other times he’s gotten over 65% and beaten her by more than 2-to-1.

So, in more than half the states — he’s gotten more than twice the votes she has.

The closest Hillary has gotten in the last 10 states, is 17% in WI, 19% in ME, 21% in LA, and 22% in MD.  She lost everything else by 2-to-1 or worse. These are crazy-numbers.

To put it in more perspective — Hillary won New Hampshire by 2%.  She won Nevada by 6%.  Her “huge victory” in California – was by 10%.  Last night Obama won by almost all of that combined taking Wisconsin by 17% — and it was his smallest margin of victory since Super Tuesday.

And Hillary continued her now-signature practice of not giving a concession speech.  Chris Matthews called it a “courtesy deficiency”.  I call it sociopathic. She behaves without regard to society around her.  She thinks she can make up her own rules and nobody will notice.  She goes on the record every way possible to say she won’t count Florida, then wants to count it.  She floated yesterday using a loophole to steal the voter-pledged delegates.  It’s psychopathic.  She’s getting blown out 2-to-1, but still thinks the people want her most.  I’m just saying, as a friend, you need to see a psychiatrist.

Hillary’s lost:  her mind; her voters; her delegates; her donors; and anything resembling momentum.  She’s actually in retrograde momentum.

And meanwhile, in Houston, Obama’s giving another one of greatest-hits speeches in front of 20,000 euphoric Texans dancing up through the last rafter rows of the arena.

And another great story yesterday — the first day of early-voting in Texas, over a thousand students marched 7 miles!  Seriously.  To vote!  Shades of Selma.  I know this will be hard to believe, but there are apparently some parts of Texas that screw over black people.  Here’s more on the story (which i first caught on MSNBC’s  Morning Joe) . . .

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/2/19/13514/8190/979/459716

Hillary is losing to the voters big-time in every state in every part of the country.  She’s lost the media who live and breathe these candidates and can tell a dog from a champion.  She lost fundraising by 3-to-1 in January — new and final figures today:  $36 million to $13.  She’s lost her own party – with multiple super-delegates actually rescinding their endorsements last week and embracing Obama, with more flowing his way this afternoon.  Not to mention her losing the momentum by a tsunami.

How long until she gets some mental-health help, or at least glances out a window?

= = = = = = = =

For a clear list of all the Primaries and their results, plus the upcoming ones, you can go here:

https://brianhassett.com//2008/02/09/the-2008-primaries-by-state-n-date/

= = = = = = = =

Upcoming Live TV / Internet Moments:

*  Thursday:  8PM Eastern, CNN’s “No Rules” wide-open Dem debate;  the last two primary debates broke the all-time TV viewership records.  This will make the 3rd new all-time record in less than a month.

Friday:  new Will.I.Am (“Yes, We Can”) digi video to hit the internet.

Saturday: 11:30 (Eastern) Saturday Night Live — first new episode since writer’s strike and to satirize the Primary — I can just see an “Obama” riffing this great oratory, and “Hillary” coming in as the complaining bitch.

Tuesday — The Final Debate, on MSNBC, Tim “Killer” Russert to moderate.

Enjoy the ride of a political lifetime,

Brian

=  =  =  =  =  =  =  =  =  =  =  =  =  =  =  =  =  =  =  =  =  =  =  =  =

For one of the most historic events in American history — check out my Obama Inauguration Adventures.

For how Woodstock promoter Michael Lang used my reports in his book — check out how Obama’s Inauguration was like Woodstock.

For an account of the most jubilant night in the history of New York — check the Election Night 2008 Adventure. 

For a night in New York that started out just as joyous — check out the Election Night 2004 Adventure.

For the kind of creations that got us across the historic finish line — check out my poem and video for Where Wayward Jekylls Hyde.

For an on-the-campaign-trail adventure — check out the physical altercation I was in the middle of with Al Franken at a Howard Dean rally in ’04.

For my tribute to a great political reporter — check out my Tim Russert tribute.

For a full listing of great reporters and news sources — check out my Political Sources Primer.

For how well these sources work — check out my 2012 election predictions.

… or here’s the 2008 projections — in both, I’m over 98% correct.  😉

=============================================

Brian Hassett  — karmacoupon@gmail.com

BrianHassett.com

Just think, next year on this holiday, they’ll be a different President in the White House!

I wonder who it’ll be?

Some good lines from the last 24 hours . . .

Ron Brownstein from Time said Obama is an amalgam of Gary Hart and Jesse Jackson.

Brian says he’s an amalgam of Howard Dean and Sly Stone.

Mark Shields predicted Al Gore will be Obama’s running mate.  There’s a nice President’s Day vision to play with!

Joe Klein pointed out how both Clinton and McCain’s campaigns were broke at one point, and only Obama has run a steady fiscal ship.

Brian says, keep in mind that Wisconsin, Ohio and Texas are all OPEN primaries to any registered voter!  And the Dems are continuing to set record turn-outs in every state, often by double the prior records!

Margaret Carlson said Hillary has to now convince the country that the person they’ve fallen in love with is really a bad person.

As the Clintons turn nasty, I think of Obama and George Bernard Shaw’s advice: “I learned long ago never to wrestle with a pig.  You’ll get dirty, and besides, the pig likes it.”

In other good news, Hillary’s leaving Wisconsin!  Off to her next loss.

Tomorrow:  Wisconsin and Hawaii (Obama’s birthplace)

Wednesday:  Brian on your computer speakers, at 12:10 noon, and 11:10PM Eastern

Wednesday night:  Jon Stewart on Larry King for the hour.

Thursday:  the must-see penultimate Democratic debate, 8PM Eastern, CNN.

Friday: a new Will.I.Am Obama video comes out, this one set to Queen’s “We Are The Champions!”

enjoy President’s Day!  and New President’s Year!

= = = = = = = =

For a real clear list of all the Primaries and their results, plus the upcoming states, you can go here:

https://brianhassett.com//2008/02/09/the-2008-primaries-by-state-n-date/

=  =  =  =  =  =  =  =  =  =  =  =  =  =  =  =  =  =  =  =  =  =  =  =  =

For one of the most historic events in American history — check out my Obama Inauguration Adventures.

For how Woodstock promoter Michael Lang used my reports in his book — check out how Obama’s Inauguration was like Woodstock.

For an account of the most jubilant night in the history of New York — check the Election Night 2008 Adventure. 

For a night in New York that started out just as joyous — check out the Election Night 2004 Adventure.

For the kind of creations that got us across the historic finish line — check out my poem and video for Where Wayward Jekylls Hyde.

For an on-the-campaign-trail adventure — check out the physical altercation I was in the middle of with Al Franken at a Howard Dean rally in ’04.

For my tribute to a great political reporter — check out my Tim Russert tribute.

For a full listing of great reporters and news sources — check out my Political Sources Primer.

For how well these sources work — check out my 2012 election predictions.

… or here’s the 2008 projections — in both, I’m over 98% correct.  😉

=============================================

Brian Hassett  — karmacoupon@gmail.com

BrianHassett.com