The Battleground Swing States 2024
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One thing to remember about 2020 vs 2024 numbers — 4 yrs of old trump voters have died off and 4 yrs of young pro-Roe liberal-leaning voters have come onto the rolls. Trump’s rallies are significantly smaller & fewer than 2016 & 2020; there’s far less yard signs up around the country; and there’s a lot of evidence (on-the-ground interviews, focus groups, polling) that show a significant diminution of his non-cult Republican support.
David Plouffe said on Wed (10/30) that he expects all seven battleground states to each be decided by 1% or less.
Here are the seven states that will decide who the next president will be:
Pennsylvania — 19 electoral college votes (270 needed to win)
2016: trump by 0.7% (44,000 vote difference)
2020: Biden by 1.1% (81,000)
Voter registration deadline: Oct. 21st
Popular Dem Governor Josh Shapiro laid down barnburner of an endorsement at the Harris–Walz launch in Philly (Aug 6th).
Senate: incumbent Dem Bob Casey vs David McCormick.
PA & GA are the only swing states trump has reserved ad time in.
Democratic Governor — so trump cultists won’t be able to thwart certification.
Jill Stein is on the ballot in two swing states — here and in Michigan.
Michigan — 15
2016: trump by 0.2% (10,700)
2020: Biden by 2.8% (155,000)
Voter registration deadline: Oct. 21st
Governor Whitmer & the Dems improved the ease of voting, including by mail; plus there’s nine days of early voting; and same-day voter registration; and no-hassle absentee voting.
RFK Jr. is still on the ballot — draws votes from Trump.
Senate open seat: Dem Debbie Stabenow stepping down. Dem Elissa Slotkin vs Rep Mike Rogers.
Repub state party chair ousted and they’re fractured and in disarray.
Democratic governor.
Jill Stein is on the ballot in two swing states — here and in Pennsylvania.
Allows voter registration up to & including election day.
Wisconsin — 10
2016: trump by 0.7% (22,000) Hillary infamously never went there once during her entire campaign.
2020: Biden by 0.6% (20,000)
Voter registration deadline: Oct. 16th
The second closest of the swing states (after Georgia).
Senate: Dem incumbent Tammy Baldwin vs Eric Hovde.
Democratic governor.
RFK is still on the ballot — draws votes from Trump.
Allows voter registration up to & including election day.
If Harris holds “the blue wall” ^ — these three states get her to 270.
North Carolina — 16 — the closest of the 7 swing states that trump won
2016: trump by 3.6% (173,000)
2020: trump by 1.3% (74,000) — the narrowest win for trump
Voter registration deadline: Oct. 11th (or in person during early voting Oct 17 – Nov 2)
The closest state that Dems lost in the last Presidential.
They have a Democratic Governor so bullshit manipulations by Maggots won’t float.
Plus there’s a bat-shit crazy GOP Governor candidate on the ballot (Mark Robinson) – which will cause some Republican voters to stay home.
Plus migration to the state over the last many years (including the last four) is professionals moving to the booming urban markets. The older rural voters are dying off and being outnumbered by a newer more liberal electorate. Plus, like most of the country, there are not trump signs all over like there were the last two cycles.
NYT poll released Aug 17th has Harris up by 2%. (!)
There is a new completely rebuilt & energized Democratic party in the state that has never existed before.
New voter registrations are up by hundreds of thousands since Kamala got in the race and the debate happened.
Maybe THE key vote to watch on election night. Polls close at 7:30 Eastern, and they can begin processing the mail-in votes in advance, so this will give us the earliest indication of results election night. If Kamala wins North Carolina, she’s going to be the next President.
Georgia — 16
2016: trump by 5% (211,000)
2020: Biden by 0.23% (11,779 — trump on tape saying “We just need 11,780 votes.”)
Voter registration deadline: Oct. 7th
Massive voter repression laws passed since 2020.
Dems really well organized; Stacey Abrams secret weapon.
32% Black population — largest of the swing states.
Trump has been insulting popular Repub Governor Brian Kemp at rallies prompting multiple local Republican strategists to say, “He just lost Georgia.”
GA & PA are the only swing states trump has reserved television ad time.
Arizona — 11
2016: trump by 3.5% (91,000)
2020: Biden by 0.3% (10,000)
Voter registration deadline: Oct. 7th
Abortion on the ballot — will drive women & pro-women voters to the polls — and women are favoring Kamala by 15% — and as of Oct 30th, women nationally are outvoting men 53% to 45%.
Trump campaign has absolutely no ground game — no door knocking or GOTV of any kind.
Senate race: Ruben Gallego vs crazy Kari Lake — who will, like in NC, drive blue votes to the polls. He’s up by a solid 7% in mid October.
Former GOP party chair facing felony charges for election interference in 2020.
Nevada — 6
2016: Hillary by 2.4% (27,000)
2020: Biden by 2.4% (33,000)
Voter registration deadline: Oct 8 by mail; online or in person until election day
Abortion on the ballot.
Universal mail-in voting.
New polling stations & drop boxes on Native reservations.
Allows voter registration up to & including election day.
Senate: incumbent Dem Jacky Rosen vs Rep Sam Brown.
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And I’m still keeping an eye on:
Texas — 40
2016: trump by 9% (814,000)
2020: trump by 5.6%. (631,000)
Voter registration deadline: Oct. 7th
Margins have gone from 16 to 9 to 5 in the last three Presidentials.
RFK Jr. is on the ballot.
Senate: incumbent Republican Ted Cruz vs Colin Allred.
Florida — 30
2016: trump by 1.2% (113,000)
2020: trump by 3.3% (371,000)
Voter registration deadline: Oct. 7th
Abortion referendum on the ballot — could make a big difference as it has every time it’s been on a ballot ever since Roe was overturned.
Also marijuana legalization on the ballot — both will drive single-issue voters to the polls — and they won’t be trump supporters.
Florida has the largest Haitian population in the country — and trump’s racist demonization stemming from non-reality has not played well Haitian ex-pats around the nation.
Republican party chair ousted after allegations of rape and video voyeurism. (!)
Senate: Dem candidate Debbie Mucarsel-Powell is amazing and can put Rick Scott in the trashcan of history.
Ohio — 17
2016: trump by 8% (447,000)
2020: trump by 8% (475,000)
Voter registration deadline: Oct. 7th
Senate: Dem incumbent Sherrod Brown vs Repub Bernie Moreno.
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National General Election Results
2016
Electoral college: trump: 306 — Hillary: 232
Total votes: Hillary: 65.8 million — trump: 63 million
Percentage: Hillary: 48% — trump: 45.9%
2020
Electoral college: Biden: 306 — trump: 232
Total votes: Biden: 81.3 million — trump: 74.2 million
Percentage: Biden: 51.3% — trump: 46.8% (4.5% difference)
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Here’s my 2024 electoral college calls (as of Sept 14th — when I flipped NC blue) . . .
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Here’s where you can get my book “Blissfully Ravaged in Democracy: Adventures in Politics 1980–2020“
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Here’s the inspirational Introduction to Blissfully Ravaged.
Here’s some Things You Can Do Beyond Voting.
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by Brian Hassett
karmacoupon@gmail.com — BrianHassett.com
Or here’s my Facebook page if you wanna join in there —
43 responses so far ↓
1 Albert Kaufman // Aug 17, 2024 at 2:43 PM
I’m kinda tickled that people are talking about Florida flipping. Working for that.
Forward!
2 Scott Anderson // Aug 19, 2024 at 9:28 AM
You might consider including “toss up” House races in these states. Some of those house races could generate local get out the vote efforts that could make a difference up-ballot.
3 Craig McKenzie // Aug 19, 2024 at 12:45 PM
This is great Brian — thanks. Linda and I are keeners on this following several of the usual suspects following Trumps daily falling into serious dementia.
4 Addie Corn // Aug 21, 2024 at 3:51 PM
Bring it on …
5 David Bryan // Aug 22, 2024 at 10:54 PM
Man, I read this with the attention I give set lists. 🙂
6 Deborah Fry // Aug 22, 2024 at 10:58 PM
Brian, I really appreciate this interesting and helpful info. That’s all, just thanks!✌
7 Steven Meloan // Aug 24, 2024 at 11:04 PM
The truly disturbing thing is that the two of them are neck and neck.
8 Phil Wagner // Aug 27, 2024 at 9:01 PM
She is the light forward – he is the dark backwards.
9 Andy Morse // Sep 5, 2024 at 11:22 AM
Thank you. HTF this country is evenly divided is disheartening.
10 David Bryan // Sep 10, 2024 at 1:09 PM
Just checked this out. Incredibly helpful! Thanks.
11 Casey Julius // Sep 10, 2024 at 4:19 PM
She is going to stomp him with her intelligence and truths!!!
12 Judith Maxine Barnett // Sep 10, 2024 at 11:28 PM
Brian —
North Carolina’s Supreme Court ruled Monday that the State Board of Elections must reprint presidential ballots to remove former independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s name from the ticket.
13 Brian Hassett // Sep 11, 2024 at 12:51 AM
Judith — Thanks for the local update.
14 Vipper Short // Sep 12, 2024 at 11:33 AM
THANK YOU Brian!
This post is a great What/When/Where/How for participators in democracy as well as onlookers.
Am sharing this, and recommend Everyone do so Widely!
15 Chuck Pirtle // Sep 17, 2024 at 1:36 PM
Optimistic but not unrealistic. Voter suppression could pull Georgia and Arizona back, but not if turnout is high enough.
16 Brian Hassett // Sep 17, 2024 at 2:51 PM
Chuck — Yeah, those are the two states where I’m watching for obstruction.
The Dems are going to be fighting it hard.
If we squeaked out both states last time, I gotta think with the invigorated youth vote and women’s rights being ripped back, there’s gonna be even more people turning out this time.
17 Judith Maxine Barnett // Sep 18, 2024 at 9:40 PM
Brian — When I moved to NC in fall of 2020 there were Trump signs everywhere. This year I have seen two. The most I have seen are in northwest Georgia, which is Marjorie Taylor Greene’s district. Not sure what’s in the water up there, but it can’t be good. Lead or mercury mayb
18 Linda Madon // Sep 19, 2024 at 11:06 PM
Everyone was so sure that there was no way that Trump could defeat Hillary, I suspect many didn’t bother to vote. We cannot let that happen again.
19 PW Covington // Sep 21, 2024 at 11:44 PM
Who ARE all these ‘undecideds’?
I really don’t trust anyone that hasn’t, at any point since 2015, come to the conclusion: ‘Trump Bad, any other viable candidate Better’.
I suppose it all feeds the spectacle, though
20 Joan Fair // Sep 26, 2024 at 10:13 AM
Thanks for this info. And I like your map!
21 Dawn Zarubnicky // Sep 26, 2024 at 2:48 PM
I’d love to see Florida go blue!
22 Nancy Jones Fulkerson // Oct 1, 2024 at 11:51 AM
Hope hope hope!
23 Casey Julius // Oct 2, 2024 at 1:53 PM
Vance would have made a really great snake oil salesman back in the day!! Besides all the lies he told last night the ending told us everything we all already know about him, “Did Trump lose the 2020 election”?? That’s a simple yes or no question and he refused to answer it. Obviously just proves that he will bend every which way for T-rump.
24 Flow Jones // Oct 3, 2024 at 12:04 AM
Just updated my address on registration to vote for Kamala!
25 Pauline Maden // Oct 3, 2024 at 4:49 PM
How anyone with any decency could vote red is an idiot.
26 Bill Curry // Oct 5, 2024 at 11:21 AM
My Florida ballot is returned and ready to be counted!
27 John Allen Cassady // Oct 8, 2024 at 12:12 AM
Kamala rocks! And she’s only 60, wow! Trump’s a Chump, and any clear-thinking American knows that. I don’t want a convicted Felon in the White House!
28 James Renz // Oct 9, 2024 at 1:13 PM
That sociopathic POS is scared witless of Kamala and of being called on his lies publicly again after his humiliation at the debate.
29 Ann La Touche // Oct 22, 2024 at 10:18 PM
The free world is very concerned about the survival of democracy. Fingers crossed.
Just a word about swing voters or undecided. -WHY?!! WTF?
David Sedaris made an observation the first time that used condom filled with orange koolaid was elected. So you’re on a plane and the stewardess asks you if you would rather have the chicken platter or the shit platter with broken glass in it. Difficult choice.
30 Jim Nystrom // Oct 26, 2024 at 12:21 AM
Just went and saw Tim Waltz at a fundraiser @ Greenfield Lake Amphitheater here in Wilmington NC last night … excellent speech…Followed by James Taylor n family.
Felt awesome n right.
31 John Allen Cassady // Nov 1, 2024 at 1:33 PM
Unfortunately, I don’t know anyone in those Swing States. However, I sent “The Donald” an email. You can too! Really! (Not that he will ever read them). I said, in part: “No. you belong IN the garbage truck, not in the cab. You’re a violent bigot, not to mention an asshole. I voted for Hillary, (not that that did any good, in a corrupt system that you devised). And I voted for Kamala. And I would again, in a minute! I pity you…JC” Pretty good shit, huh? My whole family already voted for Kamala. I just hope that others do too.
32 Brian Hassett // Nov 1, 2024 at 3:17 PM
Great to hear about you & the fam all voting, John! And thank goodness, all the right way!
Yeah — that Dump in the trumptruck was a classic Dukakis in tank moment! And the way the fat old man couldn’t find the door handle!
The Harris campaign told a reporter that late-breaking voters are going for Kamala “in double digits” . . . and so far in early voting nationally women are outpacing men 55–45% !
If that trend continues thru election day, we’re all gonna have a helluva week next week!
33 Chuck Pirtle // Nov 2, 2024 at 10:02 PM
If the new Iowa poll is even close to how it goes there then it’s a hidden landslide for Harris nationally. Unlikely, but not at all impossible.
34 Kenneth Morris // Nov 3, 2024 at 9:05 AM
Repubs haven’t won anything since overturning Roe. Women are driving this.
35 Cindy Yaccarino Muller // Nov 3, 2024 at 10:51 AM
The new Iowa is major. It’s bigger than people realize. I’m feeling hopeful
36 Julie B. Goode // Nov 3, 2024 at 10:21 PM
I love Texas being light red! Though my little corner up by Arkansas hasn’t faded much.
37 Christopher Bifani // Nov 4, 2024 at 11:09 AM
The Saturady Des Moines Register poll could also mean good news in Ohio, perhaps Alaska.
38 Brian Hassett // Nov 4, 2024 at 1:09 PM
Hey Tom! Great to hear from you. Yeah, I’ve been on the fence for the last few days about AZ. The early voting numbers indicate they may be returning to form (Repub). The questions is — with an abortion referendum on the ballot, and kooky Keri Lake against the very stable vet Ruben Gallego, will ‘McCain Republicans’ again not vote for trump? We won’t know until late tomorrow / Wednesday.
In GA, female & youth turnout has been high. Add to that the Stacey Abrams-led ground game GOTV . . . and all the numbers we’re learning about the female vote . . . and that late-breaking voters nationwide are going to Harris 55-45 or better . . . and the state voting for not one but two Democratic Senators . . . I’m not moving my Sept call on GA.
39 Tom Brunner // Nov 4, 2024 at 1:25 PM
F rump is scrambling in NC today. Harris is hitting the Puerto Rico vote in Allentown, Reading, and Phila., PA. Your electoral college prediction is good but I think AZ.. or GA ( not both) will not make it. I am optimistic and excited about the HOUSE but this is tampered by a tough SENATE race.
Report from ground zero. I live roughly equal distance from those 3 PA cities!
40 Tom Brunner // Nov 4, 2024 at 5:28 PM
Brian — the closing messages by Rump have been horrible. The only reason he is in Reading is superstition (last stop in 2016 I think). From the beginning of Harris campaign they put NC in play and have forced Rump to spend too much time there . PA can’t count mail in votes until 7 am tomorrow. I saw some info today about over 65 MEN with 2% Advantage for Harris! Don’t remember where that came from but makes me feel valued as decently may rule the day!
41 Dawn Zarubnicky // Nov 4, 2024 at 6:41 PM
You had better be right because this country will be unrecognizable after 4 years of him.
42 Scott Savage // Nov 4, 2024 at 9:51 PM
That Iowa poll is stunning!
Ann Selzer has been within 1 point in the final Des Moines Register poll in each of the last 3 presidential elections.
She has the dem challenger up by 20 in Iowa’s 1st district!!
Her polling methodology is the best.
43 Albert Kaufman // Nov 5, 2024 at 11:34 AM
If you want one more thing to try – swipeblue.org – you download the app on your phone, it connects to those in your contacts who haven’t voted yet – and you can text them directly with a last minute message to VOTE!
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