Brianland

The Battleground Swing States 2024

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One thing to remember about 2020 vs 2024 numbers — 4 yrs of old trump voters have died off and 4 yrs of young pro-Roe liberal-leaning voters have come onto the rolls.  Trump’s rallies are significantly smaller & fewer than 2016 & 2020; there’s far less yard signs up around the country; and there’s a lot of evidence (on-the-ground interviews, focus groups, polling) that show a significant diminution of his non-cult Republican support.

David Plouffe said on Wed (10/30) that he expects all seven battleground states to each be decided by 1% or less.

Here are the seven states that will decide who the next president will be:

Pennsylvania — 19 electoral college votes (270 needed to win)
2016:  trump by 0.7%  (44,000 vote difference)
2020:  Biden by 1.1%  (81,000)
Voter registration deadline:  Oct. 21st
Popular Dem Governor Josh Shapiro laid down barnburner of an endorsement at the Harris–Walz launch in Philly (Aug 6th).
Senate:  incumbent Dem Bob Casey vs David McCormick.
PA & GA are the only swing states trump has reserved ad time in.
Democratic Governor — so trump cultists won’t be able to thwart certification.
Jill Stein is on the ballot in two swing states — here and in Michigan.

Michigan — 15
2016:  trump by 0.2%  (10,700)
2020:  Biden by 2.8%  (155,000)
Voter registration deadline:  Oct. 21st
Governor Whitmer & the Dems improved the ease of voting, including by mail;  plus there’s nine days of early voting;  and same-day voter registration;  and no-hassle absentee voting.
RFK Jr. is still on the ballot — draws votes from Trump.
Senate open seat:  Dem Debbie Stabenow stepping down. Dem Elissa Slotkin vs Rep Mike Rogers.
Repub state party chair ousted and they’re fractured and in disarray.
Democratic governor.
Jill Stein is on the ballot in two swing states — here and in Pennsylvania.
Allows voter registration up to & including election day.

Wisconsin — 10
2016:  trump by 0.7%  (22,000)   Hillary infamously never went there once during her entire campaign.
2020:  Biden by  0.6%   (20,000)
Voter registration deadline:  Oct. 16th
The second closest of the swing states (after Georgia).
Senate:  Dem incumbent Tammy Baldwin vs Eric Hovde.
Democratic governor.
RFK is still on the ballot — draws votes from Trump.
Allows voter registration up to & including election day.

If Harris holds “the blue wall” ^  —  these three states get her to 270.

North Carolina — 16 — the closest of the 7 swing states that trump won
2016:  trump by 3.6%  (173,000)
2020:  trump by 1.3%  (74,000) — the narrowest win for trump
Voter registration deadline:  Oct. 11th (or in person during early voting Oct 17 – Nov 2)
The closest state that Dems lost in the last Presidential.
They have a Democratic Governor so bullshit manipulations by Maggots won’t float.
Plus there’s a bat-shit crazy GOP Governor candidate on the ballot (Mark Robinson) – which will cause some Republican voters to stay home.
Plus migration to the state over the last many years (including the last four) is professionals moving to the booming urban markets.  The older rural voters are dying off and being outnumbered by a newer more liberal electorate.  Plus, like most of the country, there are not trump signs all over like there were the last two cycles.
NYT poll released Aug 17th has Harris up by 2%.  (!)
There is a new completely rebuilt & energized Democratic party in the state that has never existed before.
New voter registrations are up by hundreds of thousands since Kamala got in the race and the debate happened.
Maybe THE key vote to watch on election night.  Polls close at 7:30 Eastern, and they can begin processing the mail-in votes in advance, so this will give us the earliest indication of results election night.  If Kamala wins North Carolina, she’s going to be the next President.

Georgia — 16
2016:  trump by 5%  (211,000)
2020:  Biden by 0.23%  (11,779 — trump on tape saying “We just need 11,780 votes.”)
Voter registration deadline:  Oct. 7th
Massive voter repression laws passed since 2020.
Dems really well organized;  Stacey Abrams secret weapon.
32% Black population — largest of the swing states.
Trump has been insulting popular Repub Governor Brian Kemp at rallies prompting multiple local Republican strategists to say, “He just lost Georgia.”
GA & PA are the only swing states trump has reserved television ad time.

Arizona — 11
2016:  trump by 3.5%  (91,000)
2020:  Biden by 0.3%  (10,000)
Voter registration deadline:  Oct. 7th
Abortion on the ballot — will drive women & pro-women voters to the polls — and women are favoring Kamala by 15% — and as of Oct 30th, women nationally are outvoting men 53% to 45%.
Trump campaign has absolutely no ground game — no door knocking or GOTV of any kind.
Senate race:  Ruben Gallego vs crazy Kari Lake — who will, like in NC, drive blue votes to the polls.  He’s up by a solid 7% in mid October.
Former GOP party chair facing felony charges for election interference in 2020.

Nevada — 6
2016:  Hillary by 2.4%  (27,000)
2020:  Biden by 2.4%  (33,000)
Voter registration deadline:  Oct 8 by mail;  online or in person until election day
Abortion on the ballot.
Universal mail-in voting.
New polling stations & drop boxes on Native reservations.
Allows voter registration up to & including election day.
Senate:  incumbent Dem Jacky Rosen vs Rep Sam Brown.

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And I’m still keeping an eye on:

Texas — 40
2016:  trump by 9%  (814,000)
2020:  trump by 5.6%. (631,000)
Voter registration deadline:  Oct. 7th
Margins have gone from 16 to 9 to 5 in the last three Presidentials.
RFK Jr. is on the ballot.
Senate:  incumbent Republican Ted Cruz vs Colin Allred.

Florida — 30
2016:  trump by 1.2%  (113,000)
2020:  trump by 3.3%  (371,000)
Voter registration deadline:  Oct. 7th
Abortion referendum on the ballot — could make a big difference as it has every time it’s been on a ballot ever since Roe was overturned.
Also marijuana legalization on the ballot — both will drive single-issue voters to the polls — and they won’t be trump supporters.
Florida has the largest Haitian population in the country — and trump’s racist demonization stemming from non-reality has not played well Haitian ex-pats around the nation.
Republican party chair ousted after allegations of rape and video voyeurism.  (!)
Senate:  Dem candidate Debbie Mucarsel-Powell is amazing and can put Rick Scott in the trashcan of history.

Ohio — 17
2016:  trump by 8%  (447,000)
2020:  trump by 8%  (475,000)
Voter registration deadline:  Oct. 7th
Senate:  Dem incumbent Sherrod Brown vs Repub Bernie Moreno.

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National General Election Results

2016
Electoral college:  trump:  306  —  Hillary:  232
Total votes:  Hillary:  65.8 million  —  trump:  63 million
Percentage:  Hillary: 48%  —  trump:  45.9%

2020
Electoral college:  Biden:  306  —  trump:  232
Total votes:  Biden:  81.3 million  —  trump:  74.2 million
Percentage:  Biden:  51.3%  —  trump:  46.8%        (4.5% difference)
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Here’s my 2024 electoral college calls (as of Sept 14th — when I flipped NC blue) . . .

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Here’s where you can get my book “Blissfully Ravaged in Democracy: Adventures in Politics 1980–2020“

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Here’s the inspirational Introduction to Blissfully Ravaged.  

Here’s some Things You Can Do Beyond Voting.  

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by Brian Hassett

karmacoupon@gmail.com   —  BrianHassett.com

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https://www.facebook.com/Brian.Hassett.Canada