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How the 2016 Election Will Play Out

August 9th, 2016 · 9 Comments · Politics

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The 2016 Presidential and Congressional elections will be a win for Clinton because . . .

— Trump continues to be unhinged for the next 3 months;

— his racism / bigotry comments & viewpoint continue to reappear;

there’s a 3-month continuous drip-drip-drip of negative Trump business stories;

the Republican party will not fully employ its party-based ground operations due to Trump’s negative perception with voters and within the party brass;

Trump’s rally yahoos aren’t really registered active voters;

moderate Republican voters stay home;

moderate Republican women secretly vote Hillary;

independents and swing voters turn out en masse to stop Trump;

independents and swing voters break for “the first woman President;”

Democrats turn out for a third Obama term and second Clinton administration;

Obama’s favorables stay above 50%;

the debates will be a slaughter, and he’ll be humiliated worse than Ford in ’76 or Quayle in ’88;

Trump’s tax returns are leaked;

the voter suppression laws recently struck down in 5 states (including swing states North Carolina and Wisconsin) result in many more Democratic votes . . .

if those things happen — not one of which is far fetched and all are, in fact, quite likely — November 8th will be a hell of a night!  😀 

Even ConspiracyBoy won’t be able to say it was rigged.

 

How Trump could win — (meaning a higher voter percentage than either Romney or McCain received) 

he’s significantly under-polling due to respondents not willing to admit (even to anonymous pollsters) to voting for a known racist;

a serious non-debatable negative Clinton revelation appears (about either Hillary or Bill);

Trump hires and then actually follows the advice of top strategists and pivots to a traditional general election campaign for President;

he becomes a reasonable, stable, convincing centrist — ie; he becomes / plays the character of a President, and people buy it;

the Republican establishment comes around and strongly supports him, including delivering their ground game votes / organization;

he finally launches an air attack (TV & radio ads) that turns out to be effective;

with the aid of local redneck Mike Pence he catches on in the economically depressed rust belt;

he’s somehow perceived to win one or more of the debates;

Obama’s favorables drop below 50%;

there’s a series of terrorist attacks at home and/or abroad — but again, this could help her as the more experienced, sane & stable candidate.

 

And just as I said above of the Clinton wave — how none of those events are far fetched — frankly, all of these are far fetched, or at least unlikely, or are external events Trump has no control over.

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If Gary Johnson gets 3% of the final vote or Jill Stein gets 2, it’ll be almost news.

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Here’s my Obama ’08 election preview/predictions.

Here’s 2012.

Here’s a beautiful gathering of Hillary and Bernie supporters at a Democrats Abroad debate-watch gathering in Toronto.

Here’s what it was like when I met Bernie Sanders at his rally in Bloomington, Indiana.

Here’s how and when I first got involved in politics.

Here’s a wild Adventure with Al Franken at a Howard Dean rally in 2004.

Here’s what it was like being at Obama’s Inauguration.

Here’s where Woodstock creator Michael Lang put some of my Obama coverage in his book about the festival.

Here’s a story I did on Bill Clinton’s first Inauguration.

Here’s arriving in Cleveland for the Republican convention in 2016.

Here’s Opening Day in Cleveland.

Here’s Day Two when things start to turn a little dicy.

Here’s the conclusion of the Repugnant “Shitshow.”

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Brian Hassett  —  karmacoupon@gmail.com   —  BrianHassett.com

Or here’s my Facebook account if you want to also follow things there —

https://www.facebook.com/Brian.Hassett.Canada

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9 responses so far ↓

  • 1 Jerry Cimino // Aug 9, 2016 at 1:16 PM

    Very cogent assessment, Brian!

  • 2 Margaret // Aug 9, 2016 at 3:18 PM

    Sounds reasonable to me.

  • 3 Dennis Todd // Aug 10, 2016 at 10:31 AM

    I am the blue collar pundit. When other white males see me they assume I am a right wing Repub. I get the skinny because they think I am one of the angry white males, construction, country music, 2nd amendment, christian, PU truck. Trump will run the table on white males. He will get 1/3-1/2 of the white female vote (non college educated). The NE, Midwest are very much in play — along with the West less possible Nevada, AZ and NM. Also don’t assume he will lose 80% of the Hispanic vote. He owns the south.

  • 4 Brian // Aug 10, 2016 at 11:03 AM

    Interesting, Dennis! Way to go on the undercover. I love it. I can do that a bit, but wish I could even more.
    That’s a very real question that’s in my assessment — Is he under-polling because people won’t admit, even to an anonymous pollster, that they’re voting for a person so onerous and vilified?

    I would disagree that the NE is in play. It’s not. At all. 😉

    What did you mean by “Also don’t assume he will lose 80% of the Hispanic vote. He owns the South.”
    He certainly doesn’t “own” hispanics. (Although, I think he’d like to. 🙂 )
    In every demographic other than white christian he is in historically low territory.

  • 5 Dennis Todd // Aug 10, 2016 at 11:28 AM

    Small business/self employed Hispanics (especially in the bldg trades in the South) are more like their Anglo counterparts than the pollsters realize. They have some vulnerability to Rump’s BS along the same dynamics as the blue collar anglo male.

    And I have heard STRONG support from blue collar white females for Rump.

  • 6 Brian // Aug 10, 2016 at 11:49 AM

    Thank you for this. I love your front line reportage. Keep lettin me know.

  • 7 Mary Jeanne Cavanagh // Aug 12, 2016 at 10:22 AM

    I prefer the black type.

  • 8 Frida Rode // Aug 12, 2016 at 1:14 PM

    Sounds good!

  • 9 Ken Morris // Aug 17, 2016 at 5:15 PM

    Just vote.

    I cannot wait for the post election lament.

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