For both Dems & Repubs each state makes it’s own rules about how their delegates are divied up – so there’s about a 100 different methods. But the Dems are all proportional allocation.
On the Dem’s side, the first to amass 2,025 delegates wins nomination (this takes into account Michigan & Florida not participating).
Super-delegates are discounted here, because they can change their “endorsements” up until they’re actually “pledged” at the convention in late August (25th-28th in Denver). All they’re going to do is ratify whoever wins the actual primary delegates.
√ Iowa, Thursday, Jan 3rd, 2008
Dems 45 proportional delegates – Caucus — Obama 38% 16 delegates; Edwards 30% 14 delegates; Clinton 29% 15 delegates
Repubs 40 delegates — simple poll, NOT a caucus Huck 34%; Romney 25%; McCain 13% Thompson 13% Ron paul 10% Rudy 3.5%
√ Wyoming Jan 5th, Repubs 14 delegates (½ of their normal 28 due to moving up) — Romney 66%, Fred Thompson 25%
√ New Hampshire, Tuesday, Jan 8th
Dems 22 proportional delegates; Clinton 39%, 9 delegates; Obama 37%, 9 delegates; Edwards 17% 4 delegates
Repubs only 12 delegates; McCain 37% 7 delegates; Romney 32% 4 delegates; Huck 11% 1 delegate; Rudy 9%; Ron Paul 8%
√ Michigan, Tuesday, Jan 15th
Dems 128 delegates do not count due to moving up primary
Repubs 61 delegates (only half [30] will count cuz primary moved up);
Romney 39% (born there, father was governor); McCain 30%, Huck 16%, Ron Paul 6%, Rudy 2.8%!!!
√ Nevada, Saturday, Jan 19th
Dems Caucus — 25 proportional delegates
Clinton 51% (12 delegates); Obama 45% (13 delegates); Edwards 4%!!!
Repubs Caucus 34 proportional pledged (not firmly committed) delegates
Romney 52% (18 d), Ron Paul 14% (4 d), McCain 13% (4 d), Huck 8%, Thompson 8%, Giulliani 4%
√ South Carolina Repubs primary 24 winner-take-all delegates (only half their 47 delegates count because of moving up date)
McCain 33%, Huck 30%, Thompson 16%, Romney 15%, Ron Paul 4%, Rudy 2.1% ! ! — largest population of evangelicals in the country
√ South Carolina, Saturday, Jan 26th
Dems 45 proportional delegates; primary; Obama 55%, 25 delegates; Clinton 27%, 12 delegates; Edwards 18%, 8 delegates (Eddy born there, Senator from North Carolina)
Dem turn-out (Note: the next most recent “open” primary for Dems was ’92, so ’04 turn-out numbers are probably the highest on record):
Iowa: ‘04 = 122,000 ‘08 = 236,000 — up by 93%
New Hampshire: ‘04 = 220,000 ‘08 = 287,000 — up 30%
Nevada: ‘04 = 9,000 ‘08 = 116,000 — up over 1200%
South Carolina: ‘04 = 290,000 ‘08 = 530,000 — up 83%
Florida, Tuesday, Jan 29th
Dems delegates will not be counted due to moving up primary date
√ Repubs closed (Repub only) primary 114 [57] winner-take-all delegates McCain 36%, all 57 delegates; Romney 31%; Giuliani 15%; Huckabee 13%; Ron Paul 3%
(only half the Repub delegates [57] will be counted due to early primary)
Maine, Friday, Feb. 1st
Repubs caucus 21 delegates, 1 delegate for each precinct win
Romney 51%, McCain 21%, Huckebee 18%
Super Tuesday, February 5th Dems – 22 states;
1,688 delegates; 52% of voter-elected delegates; 42% of overall delegates.
Delegate count going into Super Tuesday:
Obama: 63 (pledged — voted thru 4 states) + 104 super-delegates* = 167 total
Clinton: 48 (pledged/voted) + 202* super-delegates = 250 total
Edwards: 26 (pledged/voted) + 33* super-d = 59 total
* I’m discounting super-delegates for now, because they can change their “endorsements” up until they’re actually “pledged” at the convention in August.
√ California 370 by-district + proportional delegates; modified open primary; (441 with super-delegates)
Clinton 52%, 207-delegates; Obama 42%, 163-delegates
CA Repubs 170 by-district delegates; closed; 173 with super-d;
√ New York 232 proportional delegates; closed (registered Dems only) primary; (281 with super-d); Clinton’s “home” state
Clinton 57%, 139-delegates; Obama 40%, 93-delegates
NY Repubs 101 winner-take-all delegates; Closed primary;
Illinois 153 proportional delegates; (185 with super-d); wide-open, anybody can vote primary; both Barack and Hillary’s home state
Obama 65%, 104-d; Clinton 33%, 49-d
IL Repubs 70 “loophole” delegates, no one’s sure how they’ll vote ?
√ New Jersey 107 prop. dels; modified open primary; (127 with super-d)
Clinton 54%, 59-d; Obama 44%, 48-d
NJ Repubs 52 winner-take-all delegates
√ Massachusetts 93 proportional delegates; (121 w/ super-d); modified open primary; Obama has Kennedy, Kerry & Governor endorsements
Clinton 56%, 55-d; Obama 41%, 38-d
MA Repubs: 40 proportional delegates; (43 w/ super-d); Romney’s home
Georgia 87 proportional delegates; (103 with super-d); open-to-all primary
Obama 66%, 61-d; Clinton 31%, 26-d
GA Repubs 72 winner-take-all delegates
√ Missouri 72 proportional delegates; (88 with super d); open-to-all primary; Sen. Clair McCaskill endorsed Obama; THE Bell-weather state – have voted for the winning candidate in 25 of the last 26 general elections.
Obama 49%, 36-d; Clinton 48%, 36-d
MO Repubs 58 winner-take-all delegates (no super-d)
√ Minnesota 72 proportional delegates; open caucus; (88 with super-d)
Obama 66%, 48-d; Clinton 32%, 24-d
MN Repubs caucus – screwy system, delegates seem largely uncommitted
√ Tennessee 68 proportional delegates; (85 with super d); open primary
Clinton 54%, 40-d; Obama 41%, 28-d
TN Repubs 40 by district and proportional delegates; (55 with super-d)
√ Arizona 56 proportional delegates; closed primary; (67 w/ super d);
Clinton 51%, 31-d; Obama 42%, 25-d
AZ Repubs 50 winner-take-all delegates; 53 w/ super-d; McCain’s home
Colorado 55 proportional delegates; closed Dems-only caucus/convention 36 + 19 = 55; (71 w/ super-d)
Obama 67%, 32-d; Clinton 32%, 13-d delegates are est., officially TBD
CO Repubs 43 proportional delegates; (46 w/ super-d)
√ Alabama 52 proportional delegates; open-to-all primary; (60 w/ super d);
Obama 56%, 27-d; Clinton 42%, 25d
AL Repubs 45 winner-take-all delegates; 48 with super-d
√ Connecticut 48 proportional delegates; closed primary; (60 w/ super-d)
Obama 51%, 26-d; Clinton 47%, 22-d
CT Repubs 27 winner-take-all delegates (30 with super-d)
√ Oklahoma 38 proportional delegates; (47 w/ super-d); closed primary
Clinton 55%, 24-d; Obama 31%, 14-d
OK Repubs: 38 — 15 proport. dels + 23 take-all; (41 w/ super-d)
√ Arkansas 35 proportional delegates; (47 w/ super d); open primary;
Clinton 70%, 27-d; Obama 27%, 8-d
AR Repubs: 31 proportional delegates; (34 w/ super-d) Huck’s home
Kansas 32 proportional delegates; closed Dems-only caucus convention; 41 with super-d – Gov. Kathleen Sebelius endorsed Obama
Obama 74%, 23-d; Clinton 26%, 9-d
[KS Repubs are a caucus/convention on Feb 9th]
√ New Mexico 26 proportional delegates; (38 w/ super d); closed primary
Clinton 49%, 14-d; Obama 48%, 12-d
(NM Repubs are June 3rd)
√ Utah 23 proportional delegates; (29 w/ super d); modified-open primary
Obama 57%, 14-d; Clinton 39%, 9-d
UT Repubs 36 winner-take-all delegates (no super-d’s)
Idaho 18 proport. delegates open-to-all caucus/convention; (23 w/ super d)
Obama 65%, 15-d; Clinton 33%, 3-d del are still TBD
(ID Repubs are on May 27th)
√ Delaware 15 proportional delegates; closed primary; (23 w/ super d);
Obama 53%, 9-d; Clinton 42%, 6-d
DE Repubs 18 winner-take-all delegates (no super-d)
North Dakota 13 proportional delegates; open caucus; (21 w/ super d)
Obama 61%, 8-d; Clinton 37%, 5-d delegates est., officially still TBD
ND Repub – 26 delegates – (caucus/convention) winner-take-all if one candidate gets 66% or more, otherwise proportional; (no super-d)
Alaska 13 proport. delegates; closed caucus/convention; (18 with super-d)
Obama 74%, 9-d; Clinton 25%, 4-d; delegate estimate, officially TBD
AK Repubs 26 proportional delegates caucus/convention; 29 with super-d
Democrats Abroad 11 proportional delegates (22 dels, each half a vote)
Obama 66%, 4.5-d; Clinton 33%, 2.5-d 5 other dels determined in April
American Samoa 3 proportional delegates Clinton 2-d; Obama 1-d
Repubs — West Virginia – 18 winner-take-all delegates (if over 50%)
Repubs – Montana – 25 winner-take-all delegates
Saturday, February 9th
Washington State – 78 proportional delegates; caucus;(97 with super-d)
Obama 68% / 38-d; Clinton 31%/20-d Obama by 37%
√ Louisianna – 56 proport. delegates; closed primary; (66 with super-d)
Obama 57% / 34-d; Clinton 36% / 22-d Obama by 21%
√ Nebraska – 24 proportional delegates; caucus; (31 with super-d)
Obama 68% / 16-d; Clinton 32% / 8-d Obama by 34%
√ Virgin Islands – 3 proportional delegates; caucus (9 with super-d)
Obama around 90% / 3-d; Clinton around 8% / 0-d Obama by 82%
√ Maine – 24 prop. delegates; caucus – (34 with super-d) (Sun, Feb 10th)
Obama 59% / 15-d; Clinton 40% / 9-d Obama by 19%
The 60 Minutes interviews, and Herbie Hancock winning best album Grammy.
Tuesday, February 12th The Chesapeake or Potomac Primaries
√ Virginia – 83 proportional delegates; wide open primary; (101 with super-d)
Obama 64% / 54-d; Clinton 35% / 29-d Obama by 29%
√ Maryland – 70 proport. delegates; closed primary; (99 with super-d)
Obama 59% / 42-d; Clinton 37% / 28-d Obama by 22%
√ D.C. – 15 proportional delegates; primary; (38 with super-d)
Obama 75% / 12-d; Clinton 24% / 3-d Obama by 50%
Tuesday, Feb 19th
√ Wisconsin – 74 proportional delegates; OPEN primary, and same-day registration; (92 with super-d) — with no real contest on Repub side, all indi’s and Repubs will vote in the Dem.
Obama 58% / 42-d; Clinton 41% / 32-d Obama by 17%
√ Hawaii – 20 proportional delegates; caucus – (29 with super-d) Obama born and raised much of his life there; neither candidate ever went there. Obama embodies “the aloha spirit” of the natives – the ability to get along with everyone.
Obama 76%, 14-d; Clinton 24%, 5-d Obama by 52%
turn-out 37,000; in 2004 it was 4,000! up over 900%!!
Washington State – held a non-binding primary with no effect on delegates. They had a caucus right after Super Tuesday, which Obama won 68%-31%.
= = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = =
Mini Tuesday
Tuesday, March 4th – March Forth!
poll closings: (all times Eastern)
7 PM Vermont 7:30 PM Ohio
8 PM – primaries end in most of Texas (no media reporting until 9PM)
8:15PM – caucuses start in most of Texas (1/3 of the Texas delegates)
9PM – primaries end in the El Paso western region of Texas (Texas numbers begin coming in)
9 PM – Rhode Island
Texas, Ohio & Vermont are all wide open primaries – Repubs, Independents, and any registered voter can vote. In Rhode Island, Dems & anyone but registered Repubs can vote.
Texas 193 total — 126 proportional delegates by OPEN primary (228 w/ super-d);
√ Clinton 51% / 65 delegates Obama 47% / 61 delegates
67 more delegates in a caucus at 7:15 [Central Time]
41% counted Obama 56% / 38 Clinton 44% / 29 (dels estimated)
highest prior Dem primary turnout: 1.8 million in 1988; 2008 = 2.8 million.
state is: 25% Hispanic; 19% black.
√ Ohio 141 delegates Open primary (161 w/ super-d)
Clinton 54% / 75 dels Obama 44% / 66 dels
√ Rhode Island 21 proport. delegates; modified primary (indis can vote,
but not Repubs); (32 with super-d)
Clinton 58% / 13 dels Obama 40% / 8 dels
Clinton has 5 of RI’s 10 super-d’s on her side; Chafee endorsed Obama.
√ Vermont 15 proportional delegates; open primary; (23 w/ super-d)
Obama 59% / 9 dels Clinton 39% / 6 dels
Saturday, March 8th
√ Wyoming 13 proportional delegates; closed caucus; (18 with super-d)
Obama 61% / 8 dels Clinton 38% / 5 dels Obama by 23%
Tuesday, March 11th
Mississippi 34 proportional delegates; open primary; (40 with super-d)
Obama 61% / 17 dels Clinton 37% / 11 dels (5 more dels TBD)
* * * * * * * * * * * * * *
SIX . . . WEEK . . . BREAK – – – – still 574 voter-elected Delegates to go!
There are only 8 states, 1 territory and 1 commonwealth left.
AP’s estimated pledged (how voters voted) delegate count as of 3/12:
approximately: Obama 1,408, Clinton 1,251 (157 difference)
with super-d’s approx: Obama 1,626, Clinton 1,506
Total Popular Vote: Obama ahead by 700,000 – 13.4 mill to 12.7
upcoming probable wins:
Hillary: PA, West Virginia, Kentucky, Puerto Rico (295 total proportional delegates)
Obama: Guam, NC, Indiana, Oregon, Montana, South Dakota (279)
10. Tuesday, April 22nd — Earth Day! (polls close 8PM)
Pennsylvania 158 proportional delegates; closed Dems-only primary; 4 million registered voters, most in state history; (188 with super-d)
“The Obama Memo” calls this for Hillary 52% – 47%
9. Saturday, May 3rd,
Guam 4 total delegates (western Pacific island, near American Samoa, about twice as far from North America as Hawaii)
an unincorporated territory of the U.S.
should be an Obama win.
Tuesday, May 6th (both should be Obama wins)
8. North Carolina 115 proportional delegates; modified primary (Dems and unaffiliated can vote – all but registered Repubs); (134 with super-d)
poll: 2/11: Obama 50%, Clinton 40%
7. Indiana 72 proportional delegates; modified primary; (84 with super-d)
After May 6th, only there are only 217 delegates yet to be determined.
Tuesday, May 13th
6. West Virginia 28 proport. delegates; modified primary; (39 with super-d)
should be a Hillary win.
Tuesday, May 20th
5. Oregon 52 proportional delegates; closed primary; (65 with super-d)
4. Kentucky 51 proportional delegates; closed primary; (60 with super-d)
should be a split – Obama winning Oregon and Clinton winning Kentucky.
Tuesday, June 3rd
3. Montana 16 proportional delegates; open primary; (24 with super-d)
2. South Dakota 15 proport. delegates; closed primary; (23 with super-d)
should both go for Obama.
1. Sunday, June 1st
Puerto Rico 55 proportional delegates; open primary; (63 with super-d)
a semi-autonomous territory of the U.S.
* WAS going to be a caucus on June 7th – suddenly changed (on March 6th – why?)
should be an Hispanic Hillary win.
Overtime — “firehall primary” do-overs in:
Florida re-votes in both states nixed
&
Michigan
States etc. won in order / approx. net delegate gain in that contest:
Obama (30) Clinton (14)
Iowa 1 New Hampshire 0
S. Carolina 13 Nevada -1
Georgia 35 Oklahoma 10
Illinois 55 Tennessee 12
Delaware 3 Arkansas 19
Alabama 2 Mass 17
N. Dakota 3 NY 46
Utah 5 NJ 11
Kansas 14 Arizona 6
Minn. 24 California 44
CT 4 New Mexico 2
Idaho 12 American Samoa 1
Colorado 19 Rhode Island 5
Alaska 5 Ohio 9 (may be less, pending certification)
Missouri 0 Texas primary 4
Washington 26 — beginning of the 12-in-a-row streak.
Louisiana 12
Nebraska 8
Virgin Islands 3
Maine 6
Virginia 25
Maryland 14
D.C. 9
Democrats Abroad 3
Wisconsin 10
Hawaii 9
Vermont 3
Wyoming 3?
Texas caucus 9 est.
Mississippi 6?
Obama: 30 states, plus the Democrats Abroad, D.C., and the Virgin Islands.
329 – 185 = 144 approx. net difference in Obama’s favor.
=============================================
For one of the most historic events in American history — check out my Obama Inauguration Adventures.
For how Woodstock promoter Michael Lang used my reports in his book — check out how Obama’s Inauguration was like Woodstock.
For an account of the most jubilant night in the history of New York — check the Election Night 2008 Adventure.
For a night in New York that started out just as joyous — check out the Election Night 2004 Adventure.
For the kind of creations that got us across the historic finish line — check out my poem and video for Where Wayward Jekylls Hyde.
For an on-the-campaign-trail adventure — check out the physical altercation I was in the middle of with Al Franken at a Howard Dean rally in ’04.
For my tribute to a great political reporter — check out my Tim Russert tribute.
For how well these sources work — check out my 2012 election predictions.
… or here’s the 2008 projections — in both, I’m over 98% correct. 😉
=====================================
Brian Hassett — karmacoupon@gmail.com — BrianHassett.com
4 responses so far ↓
1 “This Time, It’s Personal” // Feb 17, 2008 at 12:41 PM
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2 Happy President’s Day! and Year! // Feb 18, 2008 at 8:19 AM
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3 more Blow-outs for ‘Bama // Feb 20, 2008 at 9:43 AM
[…] https://brianhassett.com//2008/02/09/the-2008-primaries-by-state-n-date/ […]
4 March Forth, America! // Mar 4, 2008 at 8:51 AM
[…] Enjoy! and March Forth, America! The whole primary calendar with results is here: https://brianhassett.com//2008/02/09/the-2008-primaries-by-state-n-date/ And as usual I’ll be on your internet radio at ten after noon tomorrow — […]
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