Brianland

the Best in Kerouac & the Beats, Adventure, Politics, Music, Movies, Poetry & other Lifejoys

Brianland header image 2

The Two Questions Remaining

March 8th, 2008 · No Comments · Politics

I was looking for this number and found the most optimistic guess at it (via the Hillary campaign) in the NYT yesterday:

“If the results of Florida & Michigan are allowed to stand, and Mr. Obama is awarded the delegates won by ‘uncommitted’ on the Michigan ballot, Mrs. Clinton would pick up 64 delegates toward the 2,209 [the new magic number for majority in you include FL & MI]  that would be needed to secure the nomination if the full Florida and Michigan delegations were seated, according to calculations by her campaign.”

With Obama’s current lead (currently about 140 delegates), and likely upcoming pick-ups in WY, MS, NC, IN, OR, MT, and SD, he’s certainly going to be more than 64 delegates ahead at the end.  So — even if the DNC counted FL & MI as is, she still wouldn’t gain the lead.  Therefore, the DNC can be accommodating and seat the delegates after she’s (literally or essentially) mathematically eliminated.

After all 3 of Hillary’s victories on Mini-Tuesday, she only gained 5 – 15 delegates.  Even if the DNC gave her FL & MI, she’d have to gain 70 more out of PA, WV, KT and PR — 5 times as many net-gain dels in 4 states as she got total in her 3 Mini-Tuesday wins.  And that’s not including everything Obama’s going to pick up from here on out.

so . . . since she’s not going to be ahead in delegates, the only two questions:

1.  Does she beat him on the total popular vote count?  (for the super-delegate overturn), or

2.  Does she try to make a forced compromise to get herself on as V.P. (against his first-choice wishes)?

 

=  =  =  =  =  =  =  =  =  =  =  =  =  =  =  =  =  =  =  =  =  =  =  =  =

 

For one of the most historic events in American history — check out my Obama Inauguration Adventures.

For how Woodstock promoter Michael Lang used my reports in his book — check out how Obama’s Inauguration was like Woodstock.

For an account of the most jubilant night in the history of New York — check the Election Night 2008 Adventure

For a night in New York that started out just as joyous — check out the Election Night 2004 Adventure.

For the kind of creations that got us across the historic finish line — check out my poem and video for Where Wayward Jekylls Hyde.

For an on-the-campaign-trail adventure — check out the physical altercation I was in the middle of with Al Franken at a Howard Dean rally in ’04.

For my tribute to a great political reporter — check out my Tim Russert tribute.

For a full listing of great reporters and news sources — check out my Political Sources Primer.

For how well these sources work — check out my 2012 election predictions.

… or here’s the 2008 projections — in both, I’m over 98% correct.  😉

 

=============================================

Brian Hassett  — karmacoupon@gmail.com

Brian Hassett .com

Tags: ·····

0 responses so far ↓

  • There are no comments yet...Kick things off by filling out the form below.

Leave a Comment

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

− 3 = 2