Brianland

I was looking for this number and found the most optimistic guess at it (via the Hillary campaign) in the NYT yesterday:

“If the results of Florida & Michigan are allowed to stand, and Mr. Obama is awarded the delegates won by ‘uncommitted’ on the Michigan ballot, Mrs. Clinton would pick up 64 delegates toward the 2,209 [the new magic number for majority in you include FL & MI]  that would be needed to secure the nomination if the full Florida and Michigan delegations were seated, according to calculations by her campaign.”

With Obama’s current lead (currently about 140 delegates), and likely upcoming pick-ups in WY, MS, NC, IN, OR, MT, and SD, he’s certainly going to be more than 64 delegates ahead at the end.  So — even if the DNC counted FL & MI as is, she still wouldn’t gain the lead.  Therefore, the DNC can be accommodating and seat the delegates after she’s (literally or essentially) mathematically eliminated. 

After all 3 of Hillary’s victories on Mini-Tuesday, she only gained 5 - 15 delegates.  Even if the DNC gave her FL & MI, she’d have to gain 70 more out of PA, WV, KT and PR — 5 times as many net-gain dels in 4 states as she got total in her 3 Mini-Tuesday wins.  And that’s not including everything Obama’s going to pick up from here on out. 

so . . . since she’s not going to be ahead in delegates, the only two questions: 

1.  Does she beat him on the total popular vote count?  (for the super-delegate overturn), or

2.  Does she try to make a forced compromise to get herself on as V.P. (against his first-choice wishes)?