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The Primary Primer — 2008 by state n date

February 9th, 2008 · 4 Comments · Politics

Hillary Rodham Clinton, Barack Obama

For both Dems & Repubs each state makes it’s own rules about how their delegates are divied up – so there’s about a 100 different methods.  But the Dems are all proportional allocation.

On the Dem’s side, the first to amass 2,025 delegates wins nomination (this takes into account Michigan & Florida not participating).

Super-delegates are discounted here, because they can change their “endorsements” up until they’re actually “pledged” at the convention in late August (25th-28th in Denver).  All they’re going to do is ratify whoever wins the actual primary delegates.

√    Iowa, Thursday, Jan 3rd, 2008

Dems 45 proportional delegates – Caucus —  Obama 38% 16 delegates;  Edwards 30% 14 delegates;  Clinton 29%  15 delegates

Repubs  40 delegates  — simple poll, NOT a caucus   Huck 34%;  Romney 25%;  McCain 13%  Thompson 13%  Ron paul 10%   Rudy  3.5%

√   Wyoming  Jan 5th, Repubs  14 delegates (½ of their normal 28 due to moving up) — Romney 66%, Fred Thompson 25%

√     New Hampshire, Tuesday, Jan 8th

Dems 22 proportional delegates;  Clinton 39%,  9 delegates;  Obama 37%,  9 delegates;  Edwards 17% 4 delegates

Repubs only 12 delegates;  McCain 37% 7 delegates;  Romney 32%  4 delegates;  Huck 11% 1 delegate;  Rudy 9%;  Ron Paul 8%

√      Michigan, Tuesday, Jan 15th

Dems   128 delegates  do not count due to moving up primary

Repubs   61 delegates  (only half [30] will count cuz primary moved up);

Romney 39% (born there, father was governor);  McCain 30%,   Huck 16%,  Ron Paul 6%,  Rudy 2.8%!!!

√  Nevada, Saturday, Jan 19th 

Dems  Caucus —   25 proportional delegates

Clinton 51%  (12 delegates);    Obama 45% (13 delegates);     Edwards 4%!!!

Repubs  Caucus 34 proportional pledged (not firmly committed) delegates

Romney 52% (18 d),   Ron Paul 14% (4 d), McCain 13% (4 d), Huck 8%, Thompson 8%, Giulliani 4%

√   South Carolina  Repubs  primary    24 winner-take-all delegates  (only half their 47 delegates count because of moving up date)

McCain 33%,   Huck 30%,   Thompson 16%,   Romney 15%,  Ron Paul 4%,  Rudy  2.1% ! !  — largest population of evangelicals in the country

√  South Carolina, Saturday, Jan 26th 

      Dems   45 proportional delegates;  primary;  Obama 55%, 25 delegates;  Clinton 27%, 12 delegates;   Edwards 18%, 8 delegates (Eddy born there, Senator from North Carolina)

Dem turn-out  (Note:  the next most recent “open” primary for Dems was ’92, so ’04 turn-out numbers are probably the highest on record):

Iowa:                           ‘04 = 122,000            ‘08 = 236,000   — up by 93%

New Hampshire:       ‘04 = 220,000            ‘08 = 287,000   — up 30%

Nevada:                      ‘04 = 9,000                ‘08 = 116,000   — up over 1200%

South Carolina:         ‘04 = 290,000            ‘08 = 530,000   — up 83%

Florida, Tuesday, Jan 29th 

Dems delegates will not be counted due to moving up primary date 

√    Repubs  closed (Repub only) primary   114  [57]  winner-take-all delegates  McCain 36%, all 57 delegates;  Romney 31%;   Giuliani 15%;  Huckabee 13%;  Ron Paul 3%

(only half the Repub delegates [57] will be counted due to early primary)

Maine, Friday, Feb. 1st

Repubs caucus  21 delegates, 1 delegate for each precinct win

Romney 51%, McCain 21%, Huckebee 18%

Super Tuesday, February 5th  Dems – 22 states;

1,688 delegates;  52% of voter-elected delegates;  42% of overall delegates.

Delegate count going into Super Tuesday:

Obama:  63 (pledged — voted thru 4 states) + 104 super-delegates* = 167 total

Clinton:  48 (pledged/voted) + 202* super-delegates = 250 total

Edwards:  26 (pledged/voted) + 33* super-d = 59 total

*  I’m discounting super-delegates for now, because they can change their “endorsements” up until they’re actually “pledged” at the convention in August.

√   California  370 by-district + proportional delegates;  modified open primary;  (441 with super-delegates)

Clinton  52%, 207-delegates;  Obama 42%, 163-delegates

CA  Repubs 170 by-district delegates;  closed;  173 with super-d;

√  New York   232  proportional delegates;  closed (registered Dems only) primary;  (281 with super-d);    Clinton’s “home” state

Clinton  57%, 139-delegates;  Obama 40%, 93-delegates

NY Repubs 101 winner-take-all delegates;   Closed primary;

Illinois  153  proportional delegates;  (185 with super-d);  wide-open, anybody can vote primary;  both Barack and Hillary’s home state

Obama  65%, 104-d;  Clinton 33%, 49-d

IL Repubs  70 “loophole” delegates, no one’s sure how they’ll vote  ?

√  New Jersey  107 prop. dels;  modified open primary;  (127 with super-d)

Clinton 54%, 59-d;  Obama 44%, 48-d

NJ Repubs 52 winner-take-all delegates

√  Massachusetts   93 proportional delegates;  (121 w/ super-d);  modified open primary;  Obama has Kennedy, Kerry & Governor endorsements

Clinton  56%, 55-d;  Obama 41%, 38-d

MA Repubs:  40 proportional delegates;  (43 w/ super-d);  Romney’s home

Georgia   87 proportional delegates;  (103 with super-d);  open-to-all primary

Obama  66%, 61-d;   Clinton 31%, 26-d

GA Repubs  72 winner-take-all delegates

√  Missouri   72   proportional delegates;  (88 with super d);  open-to-all primary;  Sen. Clair McCaskill endorsed Obama;   THE Bell-weather state – have voted for the winning candidate in 25 of the last 26 general elections.

Obama  49%, 36-d;  Clinton 48%, 36-d

MO Repubs  58 winner-take-all delegates (no super-d)

√   Minnesota  72 proportional delegates;  open caucus;  (88 with super-d)

Obama 66%, 48-d;  Clinton 32%, 24-d

MN  Repubs caucus – screwy system, delegates seem largely uncommitted

√  Tennessee  68 proportional delegates;  (85 with super d);  open primary

Clinton  54%, 40-d;  Obama 41%, 28-d

TN Repubs   40 by district and proportional delegates;    (55 with super-d)

√  Arizona  56 proportional delegates;    closed primary;  (67 w/ super d);

Clinton  51%, 31-d;  Obama 42%, 25-d

AZ Repubs   50 winner-take-all delegates;  53 w/ super-d;   McCain’s home

Colorado  55 proportional delegates; closed Dems-only caucus/convention 36 + 19 = 55;  (71 w/ super-d)

Obama  67%, 32-d;   Clinton 32%, 13-d    delegates are est., officially TBD

CO Repubs  43 proportional delegates;  (46 w/ super-d)

√  Alabama  52 proportional delegates;  open-to-all primary;  (60 w/ super d);

Obama 56%, 27-d;  Clinton 42%, 25d

AL Repubs  45 winner-take-all delegates;  48 with super-d

√   Connecticut  48 proportional delegates;  closed primary; (60 w/ super-d)

Obama  51%, 26-d;  Clinton  47%, 22-d

CT  Repubs  27 winner-take-all delegates  (30 with super-d)

√  Oklahoma  38 proportional delegates;  (47 w/ super-d); closed primary

Clinton  55%, 24-d;  Obama 31%, 14-d

OK Repubs:  38 — 15 proport. dels + 23 take-all;  (41 w/ super-d)

√  Arkansas  35 proportional delegates;  (47 w/ super d);  open primary;

Clinton 70%, 27-d;  Obama 27%, 8-d

AR  Repubs: 31 proportional delegates; (34 w/ super-d)  Huck’s home

Kansas  32 proportional delegates;  closed Dems-only caucus convention;   41 with super-d – Gov. Kathleen Sebelius endorsed Obama

Obama  74%, 23-d;  Clinton 26%, 9-d

[KS  Repubs are a caucus/convention on Feb 9th]

√  New Mexico  26 proportional delegates;  (38 w/ super d);  closed primary

Clinton 49%, 14-d;  Obama 48%, 12-d

(NM Repubs are June 3rd)

√  Utah  23 proportional delegates;  (29 w/ super d);  modified-open primary

Obama  57%, 14-d;  Clinton 39%, 9-d

UT Repubs  36 winner-take-all delegates (no super-d’s)

Idaho  18 proport. delegates  open-to-all caucus/convention;  (23 w/ super d)

Obama  65%, 15-d;  Clinton 33%, 3-d     del are still TBD

(ID  Repubs are on May 27th)

√  Delaware  15 proportional delegates;  closed primary;  (23 w/ super d);

Obama  53%, 9-d;  Clinton 42%, 6-d

DE Repubs  18 winner-take-all delegates  (no super-d)

North Dakota  13 proportional delegates;  open caucus; (21 w/ super d)

Obama  61%, 8-d;  Clinton 37%, 5-d     delegates est., officially still TBD

ND Repub – 26 delegates – (caucus/convention)  winner-take-all if one candidate gets 66% or more, otherwise proportional;  (no super-d)

Alaska  13 proport. delegates;  closed caucus/convention;  (18 with super-d)

Obama  74%, 9-d;  Clinton 25%, 4-d;     delegate estimate, officially TBD

AK Repubs 26 proportional delegates caucus/convention;  29 with super-d

Democrats Abroad  11 proportional delegates (22 dels, each half a vote)

Obama  66%, 4.5-d;  Clinton 33%, 2.5-d    5 other dels determined in April

American Samoa  3 proportional delegates  Clinton 2-d;  Obama 1-d

Repubs — West Virginia – 18 winner-take-all delegates (if over 50%)

Repubs – Montana – 25 winner-take-all delegates

Saturday, February 9th

Washington State – 78 proportional delegates;  caucus;(97 with super-d)

Obama 68% / 38-d; Clinton 31%/20-d     Obama by 37%

√  Louisianna56 proport. delegates;  closed primary;  (66 with super-d)

Obama 57% / 34-d;  Clinton 36% / 22-d     Obama by 21% 

√  Nebraska24 proportional delegates;  caucus; (31 with super-d)

Obama 68% / 16-d;  Clinton 32% / 8-d          Obama by 34%

√  Virgin Islands – 3 proportional delegates;  caucus  (9 with super-d)

Obama  around 90% / 3-d;  Clinton around 8% / 0-d       Obama by 82%

√   Maine –  24 prop. delegates;  caucus –  (34 with super-d)   (Sun, Feb 10th)

Obama  59% / 15-d;  Clinton 40% / 9-d      Obama by 19%

The 60 Minutes interviews, and Herbie Hancock winning best album Grammy.

Tuesday, February 12th    The Chesapeake or Potomac Primaries

√  Virginia83 proportional delegates;  wide open primary;  (101 with super-d)

Obama 64% / 54-d;  Clinton 35% / 29-d     Obama by 29%

√  Maryland70 proport. delegates; closed primary;   (99 with super-d)

Obama 59% / 42-d;  Clinton 37% / 28-d       Obama by 22%

√  D.C.15 proportional delegates;  primary;   (38 with super-d)

Obama 75% / 12-d;  Clinton 24% / 3-d     Obama by 50%

Tuesday, Feb 19th

√   Wisconsin –  74 proportional delegates;  OPEN primary, and same-day registration;  (92 with super-d)   — with no real contest on Repub side, all indi’s and Repubs will vote in the Dem.

Obama  58% / 42-d;   Clinton 41% / 32-d      Obama by 17%

√  Hawaii –  20 proportional delegates;  caucus –  (29 with super-d)  Obama born and raised much of his life there; neither candidate ever went there.  Obama embodies “the aloha spirit” of the natives – the ability to get along with everyone.

            Obama 76%, 14-d;  Clinton 24%, 5-d                       Obama by 52%

turn-out 37,000;   in 2004 it was 4,000!  up over 900%!!

Washington State – held a non-binding primary with no effect on delegates.  They had a caucus right after Super Tuesday, which Obama won 68%-31%.

= = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = =

Mini Tuesday

Tuesday, March 4th –   March Forth!

poll closings:  (all times Eastern)

7 PM Vermont    7:30 PM  Ohio

8 PM – primaries end in most of Texas (no media reporting until 9PM)

8:15PM – caucuses start in most of Texas  (1/3 of the Texas delegates)

9PM – primaries end in the El Paso western region of Texas  (Texas numbers begin coming in)

9 PM – Rhode Island

Texas, Ohio & Vermont are all wide open primaries – Repubs, Independents, and any registered voter can vote.   In Rhode Island, Dems & anyone but registered Repubs can vote.

Texas  193 total  — 126 proportional delegates by OPEN primary     (228 w/ super-d);

√    Clinton  51% / 65 delegates      Obama  47% / 61 delegates

67 more delegates in a caucus at 7:15 [Central Time]

41% counted     Obama   56% / 38           Clinton  44% / 29   (dels estimated)

highest prior Dem primary turnout: 1.8 million in 1988;  2008 = 2.8 million.

state is:  25% Hispanic; 19% black.

√  Ohio   141 delegates Open primary    (161 w/ super-d)

Clinton  54% / 75 dels   Obama  44% / 66 dels

√  Rhode Island   21 proport. delegates; modified primary (indis can vote,

but not Repubs);  (32 with super-d)

Clinton   58% / 13 dels    Obama  40% / 8 dels

Clinton has 5 of RI’s 10 super-d’s on her side;  Chafee endorsed Obama.

√  Vermont   15 proportional delegates; open primary;  (23 w/ super-d)

Obama  59% / 9 dels     Clinton  39% /  6 dels

Saturday, March 8th

√  Wyoming  13 proportional delegates;  closed caucus;  (18 with super-d)

Obama  61% / 8 dels       Clinton  38% / 5 dels        Obama by 23%

Tuesday, March 11th

Mississippi  34  proportional delegates;  open primary;  (40 with super-d)

Obama   61%  / 17 dels       Clinton  37%  / 11 dels   (5 more dels TBD)

*   *   *   *   *   *   *   *   *   *   *   *   *   *

SIX  . . . WEEK . . .  BREAK  – – – – still  574 voter-elected Delegates to go!

There are only 8 states, 1 territory and 1 commonwealth left. 

AP’s estimated pledged (how voters voted) delegate count as of 3/12: 

            approximately:    Obama 1,408,  Clinton 1,251   (157 difference)

with super-d’s approx:  Obama 1,626, Clinton 1,506

Total Popular Vote:  Obama ahead by 700,000 – 13.4 mill to 12.7

upcoming probable wins:

Hillary:  PA, West Virginia, Kentucky, Puerto Rico  (295 total proportional delegates)

Obama:  Guam, NC, Indiana, Oregon, Montana, South Dakota  (279)

10.   Tuesday, April 22ndEarth Day!  (polls close 8PM)

Pennsylvania  158 proportional delegates;  closed Dems-only primary;  4 million registered voters, most in state history;  (188 with super-d)

“The Obama Memo” calls this for Hillary 52% – 47%

9.   Saturday, May 3rd,

Guam  4 total delegates (western Pacific island, near American Samoa, about twice as far from North America as Hawaii)

an unincorporated territory of the U.S.

should be an Obama win.

Tuesday, May 6th  (both should be Obama wins)

8.   North Carolina  115 proportional delegates; modified primary (Dems and unaffiliated can vote – all but registered Repubs);  (134 with super-d)

poll:  2/11:  Obama 50%,  Clinton 40%

7.   Indiana  72 proportional delegates;  modified primary;   (84 with super-d)

After May 6th, only there are only 217 delegates yet to be determined.

Tuesday, May 13th

6.   West Virginia  28 proport. delegates; modified primary;  (39 with super-d)

should be a Hillary win.

Tuesday, May 20th

5.   Oregon  52 proportional delegates;  closed primary;  (65 with super-d)

4.   Kentucky  51 proportional delegates;  closed primary;  (60 with super-d)

should be a split – Obama winning Oregon and Clinton winning Kentucky.

Tuesday, June 3rd

3.   Montana  16 proportional delegates;  open primary;  (24 with super-d)

2.   South Dakota   15 proport. delegates;  closed  primary;  (23 with super-d)

should both go for Obama.

1.   Sunday, June 1st

Puerto Rico  55 proportional delegates;  open primary;  (63 with super-d)

a semi-autonomous territory of the U.S.

*  WAS going to be a caucus on June 7th – suddenly changed (on March 6th – why?)

should be an Hispanic Hillary win.

Overtime —  “firehall primary” do-overs in:   

 

Florida           re-votes in both states nixed

&

Michigan

 

States etc. won in order  / approx. net delegate gain in that contest:

Obama  (30)               Clinton   (14)

Iowa 1                      New Hampshire 0

S. Carolina 13             Nevada  -1

Georgia 35                 Oklahoma 10
Illinois 55                  Tennessee 12
Delaware 3                 Arkansas 19

Alabama 2                  Mass 17

N. Dakota  3               NY  46

Utah 5                       NJ  11

Kansas  14                 Arizona  6

Minn.  24                   California  44

CT  4                         New Mexico 2

Idaho  12                   American Samoa 1

Colorado 19                Rhode Island  5

Alaska  5                   Ohio  9  (may be less, pending certification)

Missouri  0                 Texas primary  4

Washington 26     —  beginning of the 12-in-a-row streak.

Louisiana  12

Nebraska  8

Virgin Islands  3

Maine  6

Virginia  25

Maryland  14

D.C.   9

Democrats Abroad  3

Wisconsin  10

Hawaii 9

Vermont 3

Wyoming  3?

Texas caucus  9 est.

Mississippi  6?

Obama:  30 states, plus the Democrats Abroad, D.C., and the Virgin Islands.

329  – 185  =  144  approx. net difference in Obama’s favor.

 

 

=============================================

 

For one of the most historic events in American history — check out my Obama Inauguration Adventures.

For how Woodstock promoter Michael Lang used my reports in his book — check out how Obama’s Inauguration was like Woodstock.

For an account of the most jubilant night in the history of New York — check the Election Night 2008 Adventure

For a night in New York that started out just as joyous — check out the Election Night 2004 Adventure.

For the kind of creations that got us across the historic finish line — check out my poem and video for Where Wayward Jekylls Hyde.

For an on-the-campaign-trail adventure — check out the physical altercation I was in the middle of with Al Franken at a Howard Dean rally in ’04.

For my tribute to a great political reporter — check out my Tim Russert tribute.

For how well these sources work — check out my 2012 election predictions.

… or here’s the 2008 projections — in both, I’m over 98% correct.  😉

 

=====================================

Brian Hassett  —  karmacoupon@gmail.com   —  BrianHassett.com

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